This summer’s World Cup will be the ultimate clash of belief and expectation with reality.
The core players of this U.S. men’s national team have been touted as special since their first days with the program. Stars like Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Tim Weah and Chris Richards went to Europe and played at bigger clubs at earlier ages than any Americans to come before them. The reasons for that success compared to previous generations go beyond sheer talent, but between Pulisic’s breakout at Dortmund, the globalization of the sport and the advancement of pro academies in the U.S. the bar seems to be rising over time.
The belief was that this group in particular could be different. And a home World Cup in 2026 was thought to be the perfect stage for the proper coming-out party after a taste of it in 2022. That core would be in its prime. The U.S. would have home-field advantage. It felt predetermined.
Those hopes and dreams now must play out on the field this summer.
The group that has so much hype around it has clear flaws. The U.S. hasn’t dominated its region. It fell in the group stage of the 2024 Copa América, leading Gregg Berhalter to be fired as coach and Mauricio Pochettino to get hired. And after the U.S. seemingly figured things out last fall, a 5-2 loss to Belgium on Saturday and a 2-0 defeat to Portugal three days later left warnings of continued identity issues.
Even so, there is a defiant belief within the team that this group will be able to go further than any U.S. men’s team in the modern era. If that is going to be the case, this is the path the U.S. will have to navigate.
Group stage
Games in: Los Angeles, Santa Clara, Calif., Seattle, Vancouver, Canada
The bare minimum requirement for this U.S. team is to get out of the group. The new 48-team format of the World Cup lowers that bar even further, because the eight best third-place teams will advance to the knockout stage. That means three points in three games could be enough to go through.
As a host, the U.S. was put in Pot 1 for the World Cup draw, meaning it avoided global powerhouses like Argentina, Spain, Germany and France. The Americans instead got a group that should be considered manageable, even if no U.S. team should have the arrogance that any World Cup game is a certainty.
And, for what it’s worth, the U.S. is the lowest-ranked team based on the World Football Elo rating in the group.
The U.S. will open its World Cup on June 12 against Paraguay. La Albirroja finished sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying, but were tied on points with Uruguay, Brazil and Colombia. They got better in the latter stages of qualifying, going on the road to get a result in Uruguay, beating Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay in Asunción and getting a 2-2 draw at Colombia. The U.S. beat Paraguay, 2-1, in November 2025, but don’t put too much stock in that friendly. Paraguay will be a tough, disciplined opponent with highly capable players like former Inter Miami star Diego Gómez, now at Brighton in the Premier League.
If the Americans can get a win in front of 70,000 fans at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, it would set them up very well.
The U.S. will then travel up to Seattle for a game against Australia. It’s another team that the Americans beat in a friendly in the fall, a 2-1 win in Denver. The Aussies qualified out of Asia, finishing second in their group behind Japan in the third round of qualifying to book a spot in the tournament. Australia advanced to the round of 16 in Qatar, getting out of the group for the first time since 2006, and put a real scare into eventual champion Argentina.
The U.S. will return to L.A. for their third game against Turkey, which qualified for the tournament via Tuesday’s UEFA playoff round by defeating Kosovo. The U.S. lost to Turkey, 2-1, last summer and will face a team with two of the group’s best players: Real Madrid attacking midfielder Arda Güler and Juventus’s Kenan Yildiz.
Malik Tillman and the USMNT lost to Turkey in June 2025 (Stephen Nadler / ISI Photos / USSF / Getty Images)
Round of 32
If the U.S. wins the group, it’ll head to Santa Clara, Calif., against a third-place finisher from one of groups B, E, F, I or J. Take your pick of likeliest potential options between Canada, Switzerland, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Japan, Tunisia, Senegal, Sweden or Austria.
In Annex C of its official World Cup regulations, FIFA lists all 495 possible combinations of third-place qualifiers; all of which are equally likely, and in each of the 495 scenarios, it assigns each third-place team to a specific matchup and slot on the bracket. In 329 of the 495 scenarios, the winner of Group D gets “3B,” the third-place finisher from Group B. That would be Canada, Switzerland, Qatar or Bosnia and Herzegovina. (The next most likely scenarios are 3J and 3I.)
A potential match-up with Concacaf rival Canada comes with numerous challenges — from the Jesse Marsch factor to the familiarity of the opponent and the recent matchup issues with Canada. Switzerland beat the U.S., 4-0, last year. Bosnia and Herzegovina proved to be talented and resolute. Qatar would be the best-case scenario, if not the most far-fetched.
If the U.S. finishes second, it’d move to the other half of the bracket and play the second-place finisher in Group G, which is made up of Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand and … Iran. Yes, with the nations currently at war, the U.S. could very well wind up facing Iran at this World Cup.
If the U.S. finishes third, it would face either the winner of Group I (France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq), Group E (Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador) or Group K (Portugal, Uzbekistan, Colombia or DR Congo). It opens up a world of possibilities.
The most likely scenario as determined by FIFA is Group E, at 64.2%, which means a showdown with Germany. There is also a 30% chance of Group I, which would likely be France. Neither is ideal.
Last 16
A win in the knockout phase if the U.S. finishes first in the group would mean advancing to face the winner of Group G’s winner against a third-place finisher from groups A, E, H, I or J. That could mean a date with either Belgium or Egypt back in Seattle. Or, if you fancy an upset or two, maybe a team like Senegal or Norway.
If the U.S. finishes second in the group and wins its first knockout game, it’d face the winner of Group J against the runner up from Group H. That could mean Group J favorite Argentina or potential Group H runners-up Uruguay. A potential path to a World Cup final would include taking out the reigning World Cup champion Argentina and likely ending Lionel Messi’s legendary international career.
The scenarios of finishing third vary wildly. In the most likely scenarios, it’s probably a showdown against France or Germany. Again, not ideal. But continue to entertain the possibilities.
Quarterfinal
If the U.S. manages to win the group, down a tough slate of potential third-place opponents and then knock out a top-flight team like Belgium, Egypt, Senegal or Norway, it has the winner of games that will feature second-place finishers in Groups K and L and the Group H winner against second-place in Group J. That could mean the winner of a Colombia-Spain or Croatia-Spain match-up back in L.A. Gulp.
A second-place group finish might, in some ways, actually set up slightly better in the quarterfinal stage (that would, of course, require beating Argentina in the round of 16) with a date against Group B winners — perhaps Canada, Switzerland or Bosnia and Herzegovina — or Group K winners — maybe Portugal or Colombia.
If the U.S. finished third and managed to survive a France-Germany gauntlet over the next two rounds, it could see a team like Morocco or the Netherlands – or even a potential Concacaf rival like Canada or Mexico.
This late in the World Cup, teams like Lamine Yamal’s Spain would be expected to be looming (Alex Caparros / Getty Images)
Semifinal
Congratulations to the U.S. team, which, in this dream scenario, has now advanced further than any American men’s team since the inaugural 1930 World Cup. It has downed some of the tournament favorites on the way to this stage. The entire country is engaged.
A sold-out crowd at AT&T Stadium is there to see a team that won its group, downed a tough third-place team, knocked out Belgium and stunned Spain. At this stage, you’re only getting heavyweights. The likeliest contenders? Germany, France or the Netherlands.
If the team has navigated a second-place group finish, it’s a home crowd in Atlanta awaiting an American side that has likely beaten Egypt or Belgium, ended Messi’s international career and then got a hard-earned win over Portugal or Colombia or a co-host showdown against Canada.
The reward is a semifinal with tournament favorites like England or Brazil — or other relative underdogs like Norway, Ecuador, Japan or Mexico.
Final
This is it. The impossible dream. Mauricio Pochettino has delivered the U.S. to the promised land.
It’s a final now for the group winners and at this point, does it matter who the opponent is? The U.S. is in heaven, enjoying the spoils that come with the most improbable run in the tournament’s history. The talk now is about how such success will impact the growth of the sport in the country, and whether the U.S. lifts the trophy or not, it would be guaranteed that this team would be remembered as the greatest American men’s team of all time.
