It’s day 17 of the World Cup, and the group stage has come to an end.
Many of the biggest decisions were made before Saturday’s games, but there was still plenty up in the air.
Lionel Messi delivered again: he was rested by Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni, given they were assured of top spot in their group, but he came on and scored his sixth goal of the tournament in a 3-1 win against Jordan.
The other match in Group J ended in mutually beneficial fashion, with Austria and Algeria both going through to the knockout phase as a result of their 3-3 draw, though that barely tells half the story.
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A 2-2 draw was on the cards, before Riyad Mahrez put Algeria ahead in the 93rd minute: that would have put Austria out and given a late reprieve to Iran as one of the best third-place finishers, but they only had two minutes to enjoy their hope, before Austria conjured an equaliser to nip back in front of them.
England took a while to get going, but they ensured a first-place finish in Group L by beating Panama 2-0, thanks to second-half goals by Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. Croatia beat Ghana 2-1 to qualify in second place, but the latter are also into the round of 32 as one of the best third-place finishers.
Colombia finished top of Group K after a thrilling 0-0 draw in Miami against Portugal, for whom Cristiano Ronaldo struggled again. DR Congo secured third place and a spot in the knockout rounds by coming from behind to beat Uzbekistan 3-1.
Matchday 17 results:
Group J: Algeria 3-3 Austria; Jordan 1-3 Argentina
Group K: DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan; Colombia 0-0 Portugal
Group L: Croatia 2-1 Ghana; Panama 0-2 England
Who has the best path to the World Cup final?
And so, the group stage is complete: 72 games played, 215 goals scored, and only 12 countries eliminated, which does feel like an awful lot of football to only cull a third of the tournament’s participants.
But the bracket is pleasingly complete, and we can now plot paths through to the final for whatever team diverts us. So who has the ‘easiest’ route to glory on July 19?
The quick, partial answer is: nobody on the left side of the bracket.
That’s where all the strongest European sides, minus England, have ended up: France, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Germany, Croatia and Belgium. Throw in co-hosts the U.S. and Canada, plus Morocco, and you’ve got a set of spicy ties.
If those bigger teams haven’t got a tough round-of-32 game, then their next fixture is likely to be. If things go to form, the round-of-16 games will be France vs Germany, Netherlands vs Canada, Portugal vs Spain and USMNT vs Belgium. Tough for them, great for us watching.
That said, there is a decent chance the Americans could be in the quarter-finals: they should beat Bosnia and Herzegovina, then may face the Belgians, who aren’t what they were. Once you get there, anything can happen.
How far can the USMNT go? (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Things aren’t quite as tough on the other side, where the top South and Central American sides have landed: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. The general quality level over here feels thinner. So whereas England would’ve probably had to get through Portugal and Spain to even reach the quarter-finals had they been runners-up in their group, they now get DR Congo before potentially Mexico in the Azteca — which would be a test, but based purely on the standard of the teams, is preferable to the alternative.
However, probably the ‘easiest’ path to the final belongs to defending champions Argentina. They face Cape Verde, the plucky underdogs who should nonetheless be swept aside, then Australia or Egypt, then potentially Colombia, before probably England or Brazil in the semis.
This is all based on form and strength of the teams. There will be shocks. Underdogs will prevail. The World Cup always surprises us. But if you’re Argentina, looking at the bracket, you will probably be quietly confident of being the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup.
Could Lionel Messi break Just Fontaine’s World Cup goals record?
Speaking of a friendly run of games for Argentina, could that help break one of the oldest records in football?
It seems at this World Cup, you can’t even stop Messi scoring by leaving him out of the starting line-up.
Messi was given a rest by Scaloni for their final group game against Jordan. Either to keep the great man ticking over before the knockout phase, or just to give the thousands present in Dallas what they paid their money for, he came on for the last half an hour.
And after a sighter of a free kick that went over the bar, he scored his sixth goal of the tournament with another, this time sending it low, around the wall and past goalkeeper Yazeed Abulaila.
Lionel Messi has scored six goals in this tournament (Hannah McKay/Reuters)
This was, admittedly, not the most beautiful goal Messi will score, and Abulaila made it easy for him, but it does put him on a path to do something pretty extraordinary: something that hasn’t been done for 68 years.
Just Fontaine’s 13 goals at a World Cup, scored for France in the 1958 edition, has been one of those eternal records that you never thought would be broken. The overall quality of teams is too good these days, tactics too tight, defences too organised, for that level of scoring to be repeated. Fontaine scored consistently throughout that tournament, but he did pad out his numbers with four goals in a madcap third-place play-off against West Germany.
Only two other men have managed double figures at a World Cup: Sandor Kocsis of Hungary with 11 in 1954, and West Germany’s Gerd Muller on 10 in 1970, but Messi is on course to join them. And who knows: he could break Fontaine’s record.
He has potentially five more games and needs eight goals to reach 14: it’s ambitious, to say the least, but the six he has now would have been enough for at least a share of the Golden Boot at 12 previous World Cups.
It will take some effort to surpass Fontaine, but… would you bet against him?
The beauty of a 0-0
There’s a semi-legendary line, attributed to various people over the years but most frequently the Italian coach Annibale Frossi, that says the perfect football game should end 0-0, on the basis that it “is an expression of the balance between the attack and defence”.
A slightly less philosophical counterpoint was put forward by former Barcelona and Spain defender Gerard Pique, who a few years ago suggested that it’s a bad thing if “you go to a football stadium, spend €100, €200 or €300, and the match ends 0-0… something needs to change. One proposal to consider would be that if the match ends 0-0, the teams would score zero points”.
The obvious counter to the economic argument is: don’t charge people €300, but we digress. There’s arguably no greater sensation in all of sport than the rush and exhilaration of a goal, whether it’s beautiful or ugly, for your team or in a game you don’t care about, scored by someone super-famous or a complete unknown.
And yet, as the Colombia vs Portugal game in Miami on Saturday night showed, there is real beauty, suspense and excitement in a game that ends in both teams failing to do the thing they’re trying to do.
The idea that a game can even end in a draw is anathema to many American sports fans, let alone that one could finish as a goalless draw. But if you are of that mind, just watch this game back today and appreciate the tension, skill and athleticism the two teams showed, hammering each other back and forth for 90 minutes in oppressive Florida heat.
Would it have been better had one team or the other scored? Probably, but just because they didn’t, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t one of the best 0-0s you’re likely to see.
What to know about Sunday’s game
Look, we don’t want to alarm you, but after a little over two weeks of at least three or four games every day, regrettably, we have some bad news: on Sunday, there is only one World Cup match.
One! We should riot. This is a desert in the middle of an oasis, someone smashing our plate on the floor as we approach the all-you-can-eat buffet.
Still, it might be quite a good game, even if it’s one Canada were hoping they wouldn’t have to play in: had they finished top of their group, they would have remained on home turf for another round — a game against Algeria in Vancouver.
As it is, they must schlep to Los Angeles to play South Africa, but at least it isn’t to face South Korea: given the size of the Korean population in LA, that would surely have felt like an away tie.
Matchday 18 fixtures
Round of 32: South Africa vs Canada (3pm ET; 8pm BST)
