What does the New York Rangers’ cap situation look like beyond 2026-27?

This is the time of year when the hockey world generally shifts its attention to family excursions, beach vacations and golf handicaps, with this writer no different. But in between those summer activities, I find my mind drifting back to the sport we love.

The slower pace of things allows us to consider topics that often get lost in the hustle of the season. I usually tackle a couple of projects, most notably our upcoming New York Rangers prospect rankings, which we’ll begin rolling out on Aug. 24. I also enjoy using the downtime to update and experiment with the spreadsheets I like to nerd out over. The resulting depth charts and salary cap figures are constantly referenced in our stories, but the focus tends to be on the present. So, I thought this would be an appropriate moment to look a bit further down the road.

The 2026-27 Rangers are essentially set. Team president Chris Drury is keeping an eye out for opportunities to add another forward, but we can envision what the opening-night lineup will look like on Sept. 29 in Boston. However, projecting ahead to 2027-28 leaves much more room for interpretation.

My current projection has only 11 surefire NHL players under contract for a collective cap hit of $78.593 million. With the cap expected to rise to $113.5 million in 2027-28, that would leave New York with roughly $34.9 million available — and while that may sound like a lot, it can evaporate quickly when half the roster needs to be filled.

Let’s have a little summer fun and examine all the variables in play.

Forward is the position where the Rangers have the greatest flexibility — and the greatest concerns. Pavel Dorofeyev, Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller and Alexis Lafrenière make it only four NHL forwards under contract beyond this season. They’re all being counted on to play important roles in the top six, with each under contract for at least four more years. But Zibanejad and Miller will both be 34 by the end of 2026-27, creating a pressing need to find a future No. 1 center.

That stands as Drury’s biggest challenge, which he’ll have to navigate while also identifying other forwards who are part of the solution. Some of those spots will have to be filled by young players on entry-level contracts, with first-year pros such as Nathan Aspinall, Cole Beaudoin and Liam Greentree among the leading candidates. New York needs at least a few of them to establish places in the lineup by 2027-28 to make this all work.

Of equal importance will be managing a slew of restricted free agents next summer. The big ones will be Will Cuylle, Noah Laba and Gabe Perreault, each of whom finished last season in the top nine. It’s difficult to project what their next contracts will cost if Drury waits, which is why it makes sense to be proactive and discuss extensions now. If there’s a chance to get ahead with Perreault in particular, the Rangers should jump at it. Then again, he and agent Pat Brisson are wise enough to realize that patience could work to their benefit if the 21-year-old winger produces points the way he’s capable of this season.

Depth forwards such as Jaroslav Chmelař, Tye Kartye and Adam Sýkora should cost significantly less to re-sign, but they’re each marching toward RFA status as well. Add them to a lengthy list of decisions New York will be facing next summer.

There will be less to sort through in terms of unrestricted free agents, where the only current NHL forwards on expiring contracts are expendable veterans Oliver Bjorkstrand, Taylor Raddysh and Joe Veleno. It’s possible one or two could be traded before it even gets to that point.

What about external UFAs? Alex DeBrincat, Jason Robertson and reigning Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov will lead a talented group of scoring wingers who are set to hit the market, but the center pool is considerably thinner. We’re talking Kirby Dach, Barrett Hayton and Casey Mittelstadt. (That’s assuming a 40-year-old Sidney Crosby isn’t leaving Pittsburgh.)

While there are a ton of loose ends among the forwards, five-sixths of the defense is locked in.

The Rangers are excited about their sudden blue-line stability, starting with a new-look top four of Adam Fox, Vladislav Gavrikov, Sean Durzi and Marcus Pettersson. Durzi’s contract is set to expire in 2028, followed by Fox in 2029, which will force eventual decisions. But the D-corps can remain mostly intact for at least a couple seasons until then.

Alberts Šmits should be here much longer, which is why I penciled him in as a lock for 2027-28. Chances are the No. 5 pick in the 2026 draft arrives even sooner than that.

The lone wild card is Braden Schneider. It was telling that the Rangers kept his recent extension to only one year at $5.5 million. They still like the player — and love the person — but recognize it may not add up to give a long-term contract to a defenseman who’s now No. 6 in the pecking order. It’s hard to figure how they’ll afford the 2020 first-round pick, who will turn 25 next month, when you factor in the other RFAs they’ll need to pay and the ongoing pursuit of firepower up front.

Schneider is heading toward his last RFA summer, which should serve as a deadline of sorts. An eventual trade for forward help remains a logical outcome, especially considering the new wave of defensemen who have been recently added to the pipeline.

New York could save a little by replacing Joonas Korpisalo with a younger, cheaper option in Dylan Garand, who’s under contract through 2027-28 at a cap hit of $875,000. Otherwise, there isn’t much intrigue here.

Igor Shesterkin is the team’s backbone and most important piece. The Rangers will go as far as he takes them, which is why he’s deservingly the highest-paid player on the team. The 30-year-old has seven years remaining on a contract that initially seemed like a big number but will look less burdensome each season. His cap percentage will dip to around 9.4 percent in 2028-29, when the ceiling is projected to approach $123 million, and continue to drop from there.