Chelsea’s Joao Pedro (£7.8m) has been ruled out for “a few weeks” with a thigh injury, which has sparked the Fantasy Premier League transfer market into life.
The striker is owned by nearly 65 per cent of managers at the time of writing and, with other popular assets such as Arsenal’s Riccardo Calafiori (£6.0m) also injury doubts heading into Gameweek Nine, now might be the time to act.
So should we be looking to hold or replace Joao Pedro, and if so, who are the top replacements and differential punts?
Weighing up Joao Pedro’s injury
Joao Pedro failed to make Chelsea’s squad for their 2-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur at Stamford Bridge on Saturday night, the second game that he’s missed for the west Londoners in the last four gameweeks.
In Xabi Alonso’s pre-match press conference for their midweek Carabao Cup tie against Liverpool, he confirmed that the Brazilian will be sidelined for “a few weeks”.
There are just two gameweeks before the next international break, so if you can afford to keep him on your bench he might be a hold, given his prolific eight goal involvements in six appearances in this campaign.
There’s not a long list of direct replacements for Chelsea’s No 9.
There is a concern a significant period of absence could dent the appeal of Chelsea’s attack more generally. Chelsea have failed to score in the two games that Joao Pedro has missed, two of the three occasions they’ve been defeated in the league in this campaign, as well as the 2-1 defeat to Arsenal back in Gameweek Three.
Joao Pedro is among the most owned players in the game, with Chelsea midfielders Morgan Rogers (£8.0m) and Cole Palmer (£9.8m) also part of the template team, owned by 50.2 per cent and 27.4 per cent of managers respectively at the time of writing.
Carrying both Chelsea midfielders does feel too much right now with Joao Pedro ruled out, although with games against Manchester United and Sunderland next, managers can probably afford to hold them all until the next international break.
The best replacements
The most obvious replacement for Joao Pedro is Aston Villa’s Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m), who stole the headlines in Gameweek Eight with a brace against Manchester City and a 13-point haul.
He was one of just six forwards in the game to get on the scoresheet last weekend and already has 800,000 new owners at the time of writing ahead of a home game against Fulham in Gameweek Nine, with his ownership likely to tip over the 10 per cent differential mark before Saturday’s 11am deadline.
He has the pedigree in the Premier League, hitting double digits for goals in 2023-24 and 2024-25 when he was at Chelsea. In the last four gameweeks, Jackson sits top among all forwards for shots (17), and third for big chances (5) behind Thierno Barry (£5.6m) and Erling Haaland (£15.8m).
Aston Villa have the perfect blend of form and fixtures right now too, with three wins from their last four Premier League games, and eight goals scored in this period. It feels like an ideal time to jump on board.
Another striker capturing fantasy managers’ attention this week is Liverpool’s Alexander Isak (£9.1m). Since returning from injury in Gameweek Seven, he has scored in consecutive games against tricky opponents in Brentford and Brighton, managing 77 minutes on average, highlighting his fitness.
We know that Isak can be a formidable threat when he hits a purple patch and he’s also likely to be on penalties while Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.7m) is injured, which certainly adds to his appeal. Liverpool’s improved performances in recent games is also encouraging.
If you have the budget, Alexander Isak is a fine replacement for Joao Pedro (Jan Kruger/Getty Images)
I’d also rank Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.1m) highly among the list of Joao Pedro replacements. He has proven his worth having been in the early season forward-line template.
He’s produced four goal involvements in the opening eight gameweeks — a solid return for a player at his price point — with all of those coming in home games. Spurs, Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Fulham are the next four opponents for Leeds United at Elland Road.
The differential punts
Brentford’s Igor Thiago (£7.8m) headlines the differential options to replace Joao Pedro, sitting at a comparable price point and with some recent form to show for his efforts. He’s also on penalties but did fail to convert from the spot in Gameweek One.
The Brazil international has produced a goal involvement in each of his last four games, with one goal and three assists. He’s had three big chances on goal in this time too. The only downside is that he has already received four yellow cards and could be in line for a suspension very soon.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth’s Evanilson (£6.2m) is another intriguing option, currently in 8.7 per cent of sides. He has produced four goal involvements since the international break, three goals and one assist, taking him to a ranking of fourth among all forwards in the game.
Bournemouth’s upturn in form is encouraging too and their upcoming fixtures make it an ideal time to invest, with Leeds, Ipswich, Nottingham Forest and Fulham their next four opponents.
