It’s going to be a scary weekend in the NHL.
You’ve got Halloween on Saturday night. The next day, it will be dark around the time you’re finishing lunch. And that darkness will extend to any team that’s outside the playoff bubble, because the dreaded Curse of Nov. 1 will kick in too.
It’s a lot, and there’s no point running from it. So instead, let’s embrace the fear with our annual Scary Start team.
As always, this will be a roster of 18 skaters and three goalies, because there’s never enough room for bad goaltending on this squad. We’re basing our picks on expectations, meaning a highly-paid star putting up mediocre numbers will be a more likely pick than a fourth-liner doing fourth-liner things. In a new twist, we’ll mix in a coach and GM this year. And there’s a firm limit of one representative per team, because Canucks fans can’t have all the fun.
Embrace the darkness. Here we go …
Devils get the Hellebuyck they need in his first game
Sean Gentille and Sean McIndoe
Goalies
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Sabres
Depending on who you believe, he may have been headed to Winnipeg in a deal for Connor Hellebuyck that fell apart at the draft. His no-trade protection has since kicked in and Hellebuyck went elsewhere, but you wonder if that trade talk has been a distraction. You almost hope so, since distractions can fade, and the Sabres need to figure out why Luukkonen has seen his save percentage crater 44 points below last year’s.
Karel Vejmelka, Mammoth
Only two teams in the NHL have a save percentage under .870 this year. One is the Canucks, who everyone expected to be terrible. The other is the Mammoth, who were supposed to be borderline contenders. Their 8-5-0 record suggests they still are, but it’s been in spite of their goaltending, not because of it. Sebastian Cossa has been even worse in his limited action, which is a concern after Utah gave up a first to get him out of Detroit. But Vejmelka is supposed to be the workhorse, and it’s fair to wonder how much the team really believes in him given they were reportedly also in on Hellebuyck.
Jakub Dobeš, Canadiens
After last year’s breakthrough season and (especially) playoff run, Dobeš joined the list of young Canadiens goaltenders to make their name with spring heroics. The question was whether that would make him the next Patrick Roy … or the next Steve Penney. It’s far too early to tell, obviously. But based on a very small sample size so far, he’s already on his way to losing the starting job to Jacob Fowler.
Defense
Bowen Byram, Blackhawks
He’s only played six games due to injury, so his sample size is even smaller than the already way-too-small ones we’re exploiting for everyone else. Is that fair? Not really. And it’s not like Byram was ever going to be able to live up to outside expectations after the lopsided trade and mega-extension that brought him to Chicago, at least in the short term. All that said, he’s got just one secondary assist so far, and is a -7 through six games. Also, he’s yet to heal the sick or end world hunger. So yeah, he’s a bust.
Darren Raddysh, Maple Leafs
One question loomed over Raddysh as he approached free agency: How much of last year’s offensive explosion was for real? Few expected a repeat of his 22 goals, but anything even close to that would help justify the Leafs’ $68 million bet on a player the Lightning seemed oddly ambivalent about keeping. After 15 games, Raddysh is leading the team in ice time but has yet to score or even be all that noticeable in the offensive zone. Ah well, at least they nailed their other Florida-based gamble.
Darnell Nurse, Sharks
The Sharks raised plenty of eyebrows when they traded for Nurse over the summer, especially when we realized there was no salary retained. Granted, the team needed some veteran blue-line presence, and Nurse and fellow offseason addition Jacob Trouba provide that. But one month in, Nurse has just two points on the year and is hovering around 40 percent on most possession and expected-goals metrics. Not great for a guy who’s still the 11th highest-paid defenseman in the league.
Šimon Nemec, Flames
Nemec is a -9 on the year, which you might expect on a team that gave up a ton of early goals before their recent win streak. He also hasn’t scored yet, after having 11 goals last year. None of that should be especially concerning, since he’s still only 22 and his underlying numbers suggest he’s playing fine and is just due for some better luck. But when a rebuilding team gives up two first-round picks for the right to sign you to a $7.25 million cap hit, there are going to be expectations. Should they be realistic ones? Don’t be silly.
Zeev Buium, Canucks
Pretty much everyone not named Elias Pettersson is having a bad year in Vancouver. Come to think of it, roughly 50 percent of the guys named Elias Pettersson are struggling too, but you get the point. And it really doesn’t matter much, because everyone knows what this season is going to be for the rebuilding Canucks. Players struggling isn’t really the issue … unless they’re young players who are supposed to be a key piece of the future. Buium’s had his ups and downs, and he’s been a little better lately. But for a guy who was a key piece of the Quinn Hughes deal, you’d like to see more.
Matthew Schaefer, Islanders
Second year in the league and the youngster can’t even execute a simple line change.
OK, that one was fake; just wanted to make sure Islanders fans had something to CTRL+F so they don’t feel left out. For our real last pick for the blue line, let’s go with …
Rasmus Andersson, Golden Knights
He was the Golden Knights’ annual midseason blockbuster, but had some ups and downs over his 33 regular-season games plus the 22 more in the playoffs. They still gave him a big extension, and in his first full season in Vegas he’s been … fine. The puck is going in his own net more than the other teams’ when he’s out there, although some of that is bad luck. Still, for a guy who just turned 30 and is signed through 2033, it’s fair to start to wonder about the fit on a team stacked with long-term commitments.
Forwards
Dylan Larkin, Red Wings
Sure, he’s been dealing with massive distractions, but who’s fault is that? He wants out of Detroit, and his best path to making that happen was always going to be twofold: expand his list of possible destinations, and look like a player those teams would want to give up valuable assets. With just a pair of goals through October, let’s call it one-for-two.
Alex Ovechkin, Capitals
Hey Caps fans, remember when we put Ovechkin on last year’s list and then he immediately started scoring? In his final October in the NHL, he has just one goal. Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. And you’re welcome in advance. (But maybe also remind him to play some occasional defense.)
Robert Thomas, Blues
After flirting with trading him last season, the Blues opted to move Jordan Kyrou instead, signaling their commitment to Thomas. They even named him captain. But if that vote of confidence is going to give his game a boost, we’re not seeing it on the scoresheet yet, as Thomas has just one goal. That one was short-handed, meaning the Blues’ top center is being blanked at evens and on the power play (where he’s contributed just a lone assist).
Conor Garland, Blue Jackets
Plenty of Columbus players are off to slow-ish starts, but as Aaron Portzline put it, Garland “is in a class by himself.” He hasn’t had a point yet this year, and that scoreless streak also stretches well back into last season. When you’re looking up at Erik Gudbranson on the scoring list, that’s not great.
Timo Meier, Devils
He scored 40 goals during the season that saw him traded from the Sharks to the Devils, which was somehow 2022-23 even though it feels like longer. His production has dropped every year since, and this year he has just one goal and five points in October. Father Time is undefeated, but Meier is only 30, so you hope this isn’t the beginning of the end. With four years left on his contract, the Devils better hope so too.
Rickard Rakell, Penguins
No, of course I don’t have the guts to put Sidney Crosby and his seven points here. So we’ll go with Rakell, who has just two goals and five points. I’m not sure who wants to see him get back to scoring more: coach Dan Muse to win some games or GM Kyle Dubas to juice his trade value.
Shane Wright, Kraken
I’m starting to think it’s just not going to happen in Seattle, you guys. Wright has four points, good for 15th on his team. If anything, that makes his production sound better than it’s been lately; he has just one point in his last nine. He’s still only 22, even though we’ve been having the “is this guy a legit NHLer?” debate for the last decade or so, so there’s time. It just may not be with the Kraken.
Quinton Byfield, Kings
Like Wright, Byfield is getting close to “if not now, then when” territory. He started strong, with a goal and an assist in the Kings’ second game. But that’s been it for the offense, with a brief injury absence mixed in. You want to be patient with young players, but that’s getting difficult in a year where fellow 2020 picks Alexis Lafrenière and Tim Stützle are both racking up points.
Cutter Gauthier, Ducks
After last year’s breakthrough 41-goal season, it felt like the sky was the limit for Gauthier. It still is, but it’s been a rough start with just two goals through October. Ducks fans hope he can find his touch. So do those of you who took him as your 50-goal answer in the prediction contest.
Pavel Dorofeyev, Rangers
Chris Drury’s biggest — and most expensive — offseason addition has only scored three goals so far, well off the pace of the 35 and 37 he had in the last two years, let alone his blistering playoff output during the Golden Knights’ drive to the Stanley Cup Final last spring. You have to figure the Rangers gave him $77 million because they figured that was closer to his floor than his ceiling, so let’s see if he heats up as he settles in to his new home.
Morgan Geekie, Bruins
After scoring 39 goals last year to become the new answer to a trivia question, Geekie is stuck at just one so far this year. For what it’s worth, Geekie and Dorofeyev were both featured in Shayna Goldman’s recent piece on stars who aren’t scoring much, and she was cautiously optimistic that both would get their touch back.
Dylan Cozens, Senators
Cozens had a sneaky solid season last year, falling just short of 30 goals and 60 points while earning a smattering of Selke votes. But so far this year he’s only managed one goal, which ties him with fourth-line agitator Nick Cousins. Gee, I guess the Cousins/Cozens cousins have been cussin’ over their lack of production, and you know what, that may be the dumbest thing I’ve ever written. I apologize, Sens fans; please don’t swear at me about my podcast.
Coach and GM
Rick Tocchet, Flyers
There are worse teams in the NHL, although not many. But Tocchet looked like the answer in Philadelphia last year, and now seems to be out of answers in year two. Give him some of the credit for getting Matvei Michkov going, but headlines such as this are not what Flyers fans wanted to see.
Bill Guerin, Wild
It’s admittedly weird to have a GM slot on a roster full of slow starts, given that they do most of their work in the offseason and the weeks leading up to the deadline. Should somebody have thought of that before they dropped the idea into the intro and committed to it? Probably, but it’s too late for that now. And Guerin kind of works, because he has two main jobs this season: extend Quinn Hughes, and get the Red Wings to bite on a discount offer for Dylan Larkin. Maybe only the first of those is realistic, but he hasn’t managed either yet and the clock is ticking.
