The college football regular season has become one giant race to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. Between rankings, debate shows, social media and team message boards, there’s no shortage of ways to track that race. Betting odds can help paint that picture as well.
Even though a game hasn’t been played yet, eight teams have minus-odds to make the 12-team field. That means they are being given a greater than 50 percent chance of making it to the CFP.
Notre Dame is at the top of the pile with -800 odds on DraftKings and -750 odds on FanDuel, which implies the Fighting Irish have a nearly 88 percent chance of making the CFP.
Austin Mock’s college football projections for the season are similar. Eight teams are at or above 50 percent, with Notre Dame forecasted as the most likely to make it. Mock’s model gives the Fighting Irish a 76 percent chance of getting into the 12-team field.
Having the Fighting Irish — a love’-em-or-hate-’em, lightning-rod program — at the top will of course draw reactions from fans. After all, they don’t play in a conference and their schedule ranks only 60th in FBS according to Mock’s numbers. Only eight Power 4 teams rank lower than that.
Last season, Notre Dame started 0-2 with losses to Texas A&M and Miami, two teams that did make the CFP, and even 10 straight wins after that weren’t enough to get into the Playoff. This year, Notre Dame starts with six teams that had losing records last season: Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina and Stanford.
Speaking of schedules, Texas Tech has the lowest-ranked schedule among Power 4 teams (73rd), so it’s no coincidence that Mock’s model gives the Red Raiders a high likelihood of making the CFP. He has them second behind Notre Dame at 72 percent. The odds are a touch less optimistic about Texas Tech.
Six teams are ahead of Texas Tech (-210 on FanDuel, -200 on DraftKings) at both sportsbooks even though the Red Raiders are heavily favored to win the Big 12 this season. Miami, an even bigger favorite to win the ACC (and the third-most likely Playoff team in Mock’s projections), is the second most-likely Playoff team on FanDuel (-330).
DraftKings has Ohio State (-360), Indiana (-350) and Oregon (-320) above Miami (-280). Those four schools and Notre Dame make up the consensus top five in the CFP odds.
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Georgia, Texas Tech and Texas are the remaining minus-odds teams.
Last season also featured eight teams with minus-odds to make the CFP before the season started. Half of those teams made the field (Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama) and half of those did not (Penn State, Texas, Clemson, Notre Dame). Texas and Notre Dame were among the first few teams to miss out, while Clemson and Penn State were not close.
Even being aware that the sportsbooks’ hold means their odds aren’t a true reflection of their internal probabilities, there was still more variance last season than the preseason odds implied. There is plenty of room for other contenders to emerge.
A run of SEC teams — Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas A&M — are the next five teams in FanDuel’s odds.
The top Group of 6 contenders are Boise State (+450 on DraftKings, +500 on FanDuel); Navy (+750 on DraftKings, +1000 on FanDuel); UNLV (+900 on DraftKings, +950 on FanDuel); Memphis (+1000 on DraftKings, +1500 on FanDuel); UTSA (+1000 on both) and Army (+1000 on DraftKings, +1300 on FanDuel). UNLV hosts Memphis in a potentially big game in the CFP race on Saturday.
