Should Vinicius Jr renew at Real Madrid? Or move on to Arsenal?

The ball is in Vinicius Junior’s court.

Sign a contract extension to stay at Real Madrid — who offered the Brazilian 26-year-old an improved renewal offer at crunch talks on Wednesday.

Or try to pursue a potential transfer to Arsenal, who, as The Athletic reported on July 25, have been readying an ambitious move if he and Madrid fail to reach an agreement.

Madrid and Vinicius Jr first held talks over an extension to his contract — which expires at the end of June next year — back in January 2025.

After many months of uncertainty over his future, we seem set for the decisive play.

What should he do? Our writers give their views.

He should stay — but it’s close

I would love to see Vinicius Jr in the Premier League. He’s such a dynamic, thrilling player and it’s only natural to wonder how he might fare in English football and to relish the prospect of his battles with full-backs and defences up and down the country.

Adding his attacking virtues to an incredibly resilient Arsenal team would theoretically add up to something really special, too. He would bring a forcefulness and goalscoring threat that Mikel Arteta’s side have rarely had in that wide left position.

Should he? It depends what’s important to him. Were he to play for this Arsenal side, it’s easier to imagine him winning the kind of trophies that would add up to that coveted Ballon d’Or. Real Madrid are the bigger club, but Arsenal are the better team — they’re probably closer to winning the Champions League next season.

Real Madrid were knocked out in the Champions League quarter-finals by Bayern Munich last season (Adam Pretty/Getty Images)

But the Premier League is a slog physically — in the conditioning sense and because skilful ball-carriers attract a lot of attention, deadening the legs and dimming the attacking lights. Few illustrate that point better than Bukayo Saka, who has struggled with injuries over the past couple of seasons.

Being part of Real Madrid’s forward line next season could be great fun. Kylian Mbappe scored 42 goals for the club last season and Yan Diomande is on his way for a deal worth up to €140million (£120m; $161.7m). What a trio they could be, with Jude Bellingham to fit in too. If those combinations fire, that might well be a ‘once in a career’ type of situation that nobody should walk away from.

He should stay — but it’s close.

Sebastian Stafford-Bloor

If anyone can tempt him, it’s Arsenal

I too would love to see a forward of his quality in the Premier League, but there is a reason players rarely leave Real Madrid if they have a choice — it would be a step down.

I’m not talking about the quality of the team: Arsenal have been stronger than Madrid over the last couple of seasons, underlined by results in the Champions League. But when it comes to the size of the club, the prestige, the glamour and offering a player the perfect stage — the weather, the lifestyle and all of that — Madrid is more attractive than any English club, particularly for a Brazilian player.

Unless Arsenal were prepared to blow Madrid out of the water in terms of the contract offer, I would expect him to stay in Spain. But what I would say in Arsenal’s favour is that right now, relative to the rest of the Premier League and the rest of Europe, they are a more attractive proposition than they have ever been.

They can’t match Liverpool’s or Manchester United’s history, and in the last couple of decades they have often been blown away by Chelsea’s and Manchester City’s financial power, but their improvement under Mikel Arteta — plus the London factor, plus dysfunction and uncertainty elsewhere — makes them the most compelling proposition in English football right now.

Oliver Kay

Would staying make Madrid worse?

Club president Florentino Perez would be securing one of the world’s best attacking individuals for the foreseeable future. But it would also leave plenty of questions to answer for the team.

Madrid might feel they need to go all out to keep Vinicius Jr, but what about the tactical fit? A lot has been said about the lack of defensive effort out of possession in a line-up stacked with huge offensive stars. Vinicius Jr and Mbappe were usually singled out at fault for that. Will that improve? Or will it get worse with Diomande coming in? Can they still get the best out of Bellingham?

Real Madrid have a star studded attacking line-up, but it hasn’t always been the most functional (Adam Pretty/Getty Images)

The signing of Diomande is another interesting point. You might think he would take the right-wing slot, but I can’t see the ego situation in that squad calming down. No big names have left the club in a dressing room that seemed broken last season, when captain Federico Valverde and Aurelien Tchouameni got into a fight after a training session.

I don’t intend to deny Vinicius Jr’s talent, but a lucrative sale looked like a very logical path for Madrid to follow. A new contract may just confirm next season’s Madrid as another impossible dressing room to handle. Good luck to Jose Mourinho.

If I were Vinicius Jr, I would leave for Arsenal. (But from a Barcelona point of view, I’d be happy if he stays.)

Pol Ballús

Where else could he make this history?

There is an obvious point: how can you go any higher than Real Madrid?

True, Arsenal are Premier League champions and were a penalty shootout away from Champions League glory last season. Madrid went a second consecutive season without winning a major trophy in a mess of a campaign that ended in literal infighting.

But the Spanish side are the record 15-time European champions, one of the two undisputed biggest clubs in world football (along with Barcelona) and have spent this transfer window recruiting a host of exciting stars — including Marc Cucurella, Bernardo Silva and Diomande — as the Mourinho revolution begins.

This mural by Italian artist Salvatore Benintende, aka TV BOY, appeared outside the Bernabeu in late May (Oscar del Pozo/AFP via Getty Images)

Brazilians such as Roberto Carlos, Ronaldo and Marcelo have written their names into the history books at the Bernabeu, but Vinicius Jr could surpass them all. He is already the highest-scoring Brazilian in Madrid’s history with 128 goals and was the man who helped deliver their last two Champions League titles, scoring a goal in the finals of 2022 and 2024.

At 26, however, it still feels as if his peak is yet to come. There are more La Liga and Champions League titles to be won. And yes, a Ballon d’Or to be claimed after his and Madrid’s anger at missing out on the award in 2024.

Stay, and he could truly cement himself as one of the greatest players at one of the game’s most storied clubs. That has to be tempting for a forward who can thrill like few others.

Tomas Hill López-Menchero

Is the game already up?

It’s difficult to escape the suspicion that Arsenal’s best chance of signing Vinicius Jr would have been if Real Madrid failed to improve their offer. Now that they have, it will be more difficult to prise him away.

So what is the case they can present to Vinicius Jr, beyond the hard finances? Arsenal’s argument will presumably be built around leaving Madrid, where he is one in a galaxy of stars, to become the centrepiece for the Premier League champions.

Arsenal believe that Vinicius Jr has an opportunity to become the Premier League’s undisputed superstar, unlocking a vast array of commercial opportunities. Real Madrid might be football’s ultimate destination club, but the appeal of the Premier League remains enormous.

Then there’s the case for Vinicius Jr’s on-field legacy. Real Madrid have already won 15 Champions League titles. After missing out in last year’s final, Arsenal are determined to end their long wait to win Europe’s biggest prize. Arteta will be trying to persuade the Brazilian that helping Arsenal claim their first Champions League final will mean more than anything he could achieve in Madrid.

What do I think he should do? I’d love to see him at Arsenal. Whether he’s prepared to take the leap, however, remains to be seen.

James McNicholas