With the final spots at the World Cup secured, Canada’s path is now set. And there’s reason to be optimistic about what this summer could entail for a Canadian team on the up.
Under Jesse Marsch, Canada’s men’s national team have risen as high as 26th in the FIFA world rankings, their best-ever placing. Canada also advanced to a Copa America semi-final, which included a very respectable performance against Argentina, and have earned back-to-back wins in Europe for the first time.
So, as co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, how could this tournament play out for Canada? Let’s break down their path…
Group stage
Canada will start their World Cup in Toronto in just the third game of the tournament. They had to wait until the 11th hour to learn their first opponent: Bosnia and Herzegovina. While they won’t bring the allure that the Italians might have in that opening match, Bosnia and Herzegovina are still a worthy opponent — having come from a goal down to beat Wales and Italy in the European play-offs to get into the tournament — to try to deal with in front of home fans in Toronto.
Games in: Los Angeles, Santa Clara, Calif., Seattle, Toronto, Vancouver, Canada
After that opening game, Canada travel to Vancouver and will stay there for the remainder of the group stage, at the very least.
Canada’s second opponent, Qatar, presents their best chance of a win. Qatar were one of the lowest-ranked Pot 3 teams and were the only team to finish behind Canada in the 2022 World Cup standings. For Canada, the challenge will be managing their own expectations and emotions and getting out of the first of their group games in Vancouver with three points and a healthy goal differential.
After Qatar, Canada will stay at their home base in Vancouver and not leave before their final group match against Switzerland. The lack of travel could serve them well; the Swiss will have to make a three-hour flight from their base camp in San Diego to get to Vancouver. Canada better hope the travel hurts them, because that could be the game they need the most help in.
Yet if Canada beat Switzerland, that could be enough for them to top Group B. And there’s plenty of incentive for them to do just that…
Round of 32
If Canada win Group B, they will be placed in the bottom half of the draw and avoid the two tournament favourites, Spain and France. But the bigger prize for winning the group is the chance to stay in Vancouver, avoid travel and play in front of a home crowd in their round-of-32 game. No other World Cup team would have the chance to play three games in a row in the same venue — in their home country, no less.
Winning Group B would also mean having a break of seven full days before their round-of-32 match against a third-placed team from one of five groups (E, F, G, I or J). It’s impossible to accurately predict right now, but the possibilities include Ivory Coast, Tunisia, Iran, Senegal and Algeria. Lastly, topping the group would likely require confidence-building victories over Bosnia and Herzegovina and/or Switzerland. Canada would be considered the slight favourites.
If Canada finish second in Group B, their outlook would be vastly different: they would have only three full days off between games and they would have to travel to Los Angeles for a game against the second-place team from Group A. On paper, that could be any one of South Korea, South Africa, the Czech Republic and — gulp! — Mexico.
The last time Canada played Mexico in LA was a little over a year ago. A wildly pro-Mexico crowd helped push them to a comprehensive 2-0 win over Canada in the Nations League semi-finals. Playing Mexico in the southern United States is something Canada would like to avoid at all costs.
Canada lost to Mexico in the Nations League in Los Angeles in March 2025 (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Finishing third in Group B could send Canada to either Foxborough, near Boston, to play the winner of Group E (Germany?!) with four days off between games, or to Santa Clara, just south of San Francisco, with six days off to face the winner of Group D.
The latter could mean a round-of-32 game for the ages, with the United States having lucked into an easy draw (Australia, Paraguay and Turkey), which could see them win Group D. Emotional, political and sporting pride could all be at stake in what would be a massive match.
Round of 16
Winning one knockout round game at the World Cup after not having nabbed a single point in the tournament previously would be an incredible achievement.
If they win Group B and their round-of-32 game, Canada would again play in Vancouver, with four days off in between games. They could face the winner of Group K, which feels like it would be either Portugal or Colombia. A confident Canada side would like their chances, especially having drawn 0-0 with Colombia in October in a spirited match in front of 99.9 per cent Colombia fans.
Should Canada finish second and then get out of Los Angeles with a win, they could play the winner of Group F in the round of 16. One of the Netherlands and Japan would possibly await in Houston.
Pulling off a Herculean win in the round of 32 after a third-place finish would mean Canada would travel either to Philadelphia to possibly play France as the winner of Group I or to Seattle on July 6 to possibly play the winner of Group G. Canada would fancy their chances in the latter game, as Belgium and Iran feel like favourites to win Group G.
Quarter-finals
Let’s start by stressing something here: getting to the quarter-finals wouldn’t just be a dream scenario for Canada, it would turn them into one of the biggest stories in Canadian sports history.
If Canada were to win their group and make it to the quarter-finals, they would finally have to leave Canada. They would head to Kansas City, with a date against Argentina possibly on the horizon.
Either a second-place or a third-place finish in Group B could see Canada play France or Germany in the quarter-finals in Foxborough. There is also the chance that a third-place finish in the group stage would lead to an LA quarter-final, possibly against Spain, on July 10.
But let’s all take a deep breath and admit that Canada would still be massive underdogs in any last-eight match.
Semi-finals
If you’re reading this far, your first reaction might be something along the lines of ‘Why am I still reading this? Canada is not even sniffing a semi-final berth.’
To which I see your blend of pessimism and realism, and direct your attention to the 2002 World Cup.
Entering that tournament, co-hosts South Korea were ranked 40th in the world by FIFA. But propelled by a relentless, high-pressing style of play and fervent support at home, they toppled Poland, Portugal, Italy and Spain to reach the semi-finals. (Yes, the round-of-16 match against Italy was shrouded in controversy because of questionable refereeing, but South Korea improbably went through.)
All of which is to say: you can see similarities between South Korea’s remarkable run and Canada’s possible route to the semi-finals 24 years later.
So, let’s assume Canada go as far as South Korea did back then. If Canada win their group, as South Korea did, their semi-final would be in Atlanta on July 15. Brazil, England and Argentina are possibilities.
If Canada pull off a miracle run not as group winners, they would be on the other side of the bracket. Their semi-final would be on July 14 in Arlington, near Dallas, with multiple big hitters awaiting them.
Final
If Canada make it to the World Cup final on July 19 in New Jersey, a few miles west of New York City, a couple of things need to happen.
First, someone will have to travel to my backyard and water my tomato plants, as I will likely have been away from them for far too long. Next, someone will have to find every sports almanac in Canada and rip it to shreds. Because this improbable run would not just be considered the greatest story in Canadian sports history, but one of the most remarkable sports stories ever.
Mighty Spain? Tiny Curacao? It wouldn’t matter who Canada would play in the final. One of Canada’s goals for this tournament is to change the way people look at soccer… forever.
Going as far as possible in the World Cup would do just that.
