By now, you probably know that Manchester City’s game against Arsenal today could prove decisive in the Premier League title race.
Arsenal are six points clear of City, but Pep Guardiola’s side have a game in hand on their rivals, and a 2-1 reverse to Bournemouth last weekend came at exactly the wrong time for Mikel Arteta’s team.
Here, Oli Kay, Sarah Shephard, Nick Miller, and Colin Millar make their predictions for a potentially pivotal encounter at the Etihad with just six games (or in City’s case, seven) remaining.
Does Guardiola have the edge over Arteta ahead of Sunday? What will have been learnt from Carabao Cup final?
Nick Miller: Sort of, although I’m not sure it will have necessarily come from the Carabao Cup.
Guardiola just has this alpha energy over Arteta in a “I’ve been here before, son… tough, isn’t it?” way, which could potentially get into his former assistant’s head. It’s interesting that Arteta’s response to most of Arsenal’s setbacks has been to encourage them to fight, to mentally respond, which suggests he thinks his side have a psychological issue. Guardiola’s experience might play into that.
Sarah Shephard: Despite Arsenal leading the title race for so long this season, Guardiola still has the edge over Arteta. Why? Because he has been there and done it so many times, in so many different ways.
Sir Alex Ferguson once said that until you’ve won, you don’t know how to win, and once you’ve won, you never want to lose. Guardiola’s players believe their manager knows how to win because they’ve seen him do it over and over again. Arteta needs his players to believe that he knows how to do it, too, but that became a tough task after the Carabao Cup final defeat.
Arteta will have left Wembley knowing he needs to find solutions to the questions Guardiola posed in that final, while also being aware that the City coach is more than able to pose different questions altogether on Sunday. Guardiola will have come away from Wembley cautious that Arsenal are unlikely to play that poorly again, but confident he has a strong blueprint for how to counter whatever they bring to the Etihad.
Manchester City’s Carabao Cup win against Arsenal will give them encouragement (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
Oliver Kay: I felt before the Carabao Cup final that Arteta and Arsenal had the edge. That was City’s only victory against them in seven attempts, which is why I thought some of the post-match narrative — “big game, so Arsenal flop again, lol” — was very simplistic.
But winning that final has re-energised City. Their past three performances (beating Arsenal 2-0, Liverpool 4-0, and Chelsea 3-0) have been arguably their best of the season — arguably their best run for two years, in fact. It has fuelled the perception that Guardiola and City have got the bit between their teeth again and that Arsenal are flagging at just the wrong time.
For all the questions about Arsenal’s mentality, I would actually say resilience, character, bottle — call it what you like — is one of their strengths, rather than weaknesses. What I have been questioning since the start of last season is whether they are good enough, creative enough and bold enough in possession. Theirs is an approach that requires them to “dig in” a lot more than title-winning teams of the recent past have ever had to. And, on Sunday, they are going to have to dig very deep.
Colin Millar: That one City win in their past seven meetings with Arsenal was quite possibly the most relevant.
City’s press in the Carabao Cup final smothered Arsenal’s build-up and provided the template for Bournemouth’s win at the Emirates last weekend. Meanwhile, Arteta has never won as a visiting manager at City and has beaten Guardiola’s side just twice in six years.
Arsenal’s approach has become increasingly risk-averse in recent months, while City’s growing confidence, tactical versatility, title-winning experience, and home advantage give them an edge.
How much will the outcome of this game decide the title?
Miller: A lot… in that I think whoever wins the game will win the league. Arsenal would be nine points clear and, even with City’s game in hand, that’s too much of a lead with six games remaining. But City would effectively be level (I’m assuming they’ll beat Crystal Palace), and at that stage Arsenal’s collective head will be on the moon. If it’s a draw, I think Arsenal will cling on.
Shephard: It depends. If Arsenal win, then it puts them nine points clear again, but with fewer games remaining for City to claw those back (although they will still have a game in hand).
If City win, then it has the potential to fully turn the tide in their favour, putting them within three points of catching Arsenal and with all the momentum and confidence to do so. If the game ends in a draw, it could (depending on how it plays out) give Arsenal the shot of confidence they sorely need to scrape over the line.
Arsenal could gain a nine-point lead over Manchester City with a win (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Kay: Arsenal’s lead would look close to unassailable if they win, even with one fewer game to play and the Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid on the horizon.
Even if it’s a draw, then it’s firmly advantage Arsenal once more. A City win is the outcome that would blow the race wide open — and, if that happens, I would firmly expect Guardiola’s team to capitalise on that growing sense of uncertainty in the Arsenal camp.
But even so, for all the talk of City running into form at the perfect time, I think the perfect time would have been at least a month earlier.
Who will be the key players for each team?
Miller: Declan Rice vs the Manchester City midfield. If some of Arsenal’s more creative players are still absent, and with them in this funk, they might have to rely on one of those ‘game by the scruff of the neck’ performances Rice is sometimes capable of.
The England midfielder will also have to play a big role in stopping whoever Guardiola picks as his two No 8s… presumably Bernardo Silva and Rayan Cherki. Busy old afternoon for Declan.
Arsenal will be looking to Declan Rice as their leader in midfield (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Shephard: After Arsenal were overrun in midfield during the second half of the Carabao Cup final, I agree that Rice (who looked mentally drained after their Champions League quarter-final draw with Sporting CP in midweek) will feel the weight of that responsibility weighing even heavier than usual on his shoulders, alongside Martin Zubimendi.
For City, Cherki’s creativity could act as a painful reminder for their opponents of what has been lacking for them of late. Arsenal’s threat from set pieces will require centre-backs Marc Guehi and Abdukodir Khusanov (assuming Ruben Dias is not yet ready to start) to stay switched on from start to finish.
Kay: I suspect City will dominate possession for long periods, so Arsenal will have to soak up a lot of pressure. It’s not just whether William Saliba and Gabriel can contain Erling Haaland, which they did in the Carabao Cup final, but whether the rest of City’s creative players — Bernardo, Cherki, Antoine Semenyo and (presumably) Jeremy Doku — can be kept quiet.
If Arsenal are to get a result, there’s a good chance Gabriel will be picking up the player of the match award.
Millar: City are likely to dominate possession and press high, with a similar pattern to the Carabao Cup final. Whether Arsenal can take the chances that do come their way could decide this game, whether that is through open-play counter-attacks or their usual set-piece strategy.
It will be fascinating to see which attacking trio are selected by Arsenal, but the nature of this game could suit Viktor Gyokeres, who thrived at Sporting when his side countered quickly and which allowed the Sweden striker to feed off quick wide forwards and sprint into space.
What are your match predictions?
Kay: At almost any previous point since the start of last season, I would have gone for a draw or an Arsenal win. Recent events prompt me to lean towards City: 2-0 (Haaland, Semenyo).
Miller: 2-2. Semenyo and Bernardo for City, Rice and Kai Havertz for Arsenal. Put the mortgage on it.
Shephard: City 2-0 Arsenal. Semenyo brace.
Millar: City 2-1 Arsenal (Semenyo, Haaland; Gabriel).
