Answering crucial fantasy football draft questions at wide receiver

Our fantasy football roundtable series moves on to the wide receiver position. In case you missed our Q&A on quarterbacks and running backs, we have enlisted a standout crew of contributors to The Athletic fantasy football, including Jake Ciely, Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, Brad Evans, Michael Salfino, Jess Bryant and Brandon Funston.

Who deserves to be the first WR off the draft board? How will Justin Jefferson fare with Kyler Murray, and which late-round WR has the best chance to help fantasy teams? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our tight end roundtable!

Note: All Average Draft Position (ADP) references below are from Fantasy Pros’ real-time ADP.

Ja’Marr Chase or Puka Nacua? And what is the biggest deciding factor in who you are taking?

Leading the NFL in targets each of the past two years is part of a strong case for Ja’Marr Chase being the top-drafted fantasy WR in 2026. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Ciely: Superman or Batman? Might as well start that debate while we’re at it, but I’ll take Batman/Nacua. Chase actually only has one season reaching 17+ FPPG (20.0) even with everyone healthy. Sure, that might sound nitpicky, but Nacua hit 19.4 last year while dealing with Davante Adams inhaling touchdowns at Kirby vacuum levels. If you want to take Chase, though, I’m not going to argue much.

Behrens: Chase is not currently injured, nor does he have suspension risk hanging over his season. He’s also led the NFL in targets in each of the past two years. If we get a full season from Joe Burrow, Chase can make a run at 2K yards and another receiving triple crown.

Del Don: Chase is the call for me, mainly because of Nacua’s escalated injury risk. Nacua is obviously a fantasy monster who would surprise no one if he finished as the No. 1 overall player in PPR leagues, but Chase is ostensibly safer with an equally high ceiling. Chase owns the most targets and fantasy points scored over the first five years of a wide receiver’s career in NFL history.

Evans: Chase… and the gap has widened. Puka’s possible suspension combined with his tender groin pushes Chase firmly ahead. Cincinnati’s defense should be much improved and its offensive line remains a turnstile, but the targets king from 2025 (185) should again flash the YAC and tally an obscene PPR line. Cincy’s fifth-easiest projected WR fantasy strength of schedule only cements the case.

Salfino: Touchdowns. Chase has averaged one every 9.6 catches and Nacua one every 22.7 catches. Nacua averages 7.1 catches per game versus one every 6.7 for Chase — not a significant difference. It’s no contest — Chase wins.

Bryant: I like Chase, who ran over 10 routes per game more than Nacua last year, had a higher team target rate (30.4%) and more red-zone, end-zone and overall targets per game. He also drew more yards on defensive pass interference (DPI) and achieved nearly as many first downs per game with fewer on-target passes. Plus, I trust his connection with Joe Burrow and backup Joe Flacco.

Funston: Nacua. I’m going with the player I most fear going against in fantasy. He was the No. 1 WR in PPR scoring last season despite missing a game, so he can weather being suspended a game in 2026. He was also almost 4 PPR PPG better than Chase last season, and leads Chase in PPR PPG over the past three seasons by the thinnest of margins. And don’t bother using Matthew Stafford’s age and injury concern against Nacua. The Rams have done a great job of managing him and keeping him out of harm’s way. Stafford has played 48 games the past three seasons, 13 more than Joe Burrow (35).

Which top-15 WR in ADP would you be most unlikely to draft given the price?

Ciely: After watching Tua Tagovailoa make the Falcons long for washed-up Kirk Cousins to return, I have major concerns about Drake London as a top-10 wide receiver. It’s not doubting London or being worried about Tagovailoa’s passes going two yards at a time; it’s that London’s 30-40% target share might not exist if Tagovailoa starts even half the season.

Behrens: Malik Nabers is an easy pass for me at his price. I’m looking for a level of certainty in his draft range, which means I’m not seeking out pre-injured players. Also, I’m not totally convinced Jaxson Dart is the sort of passer who can deliver a WR1.

Del Don: I prefer starting drafts with running backs at the end of the first round this season, which has resulted in reluctantly passing on Justin Jefferson. I expect a nice bounce-back campaign in 2026, but Kyler Murray presents limitations to his pass catchers. Jefferson is rightfully getting ADP respect after he was fantasy’s WR49 over the final nine games last season, but he’s going a few picks too early.

Evans: Rashee Rice. Throwing a stiff arm on Patrick Mahomes’ presumed flavor of choice is hardly tasteless. Rice is coming off a major knee injury, and KC is likely to become a more run-heavy offense. Setbacks plagued the past two years, as Rice has only suited up in 12 total regular season games. Despite his terrific after-catch abilities, it’s difficult to justify taking him at his top-35 overall ADP. Piling on, the Chiefs have the third-most difficult projected fantasy schedule for WRs. Don’t snap tendons reaching for his services.

Salfino: Nabers and Rashee Rice are top-15 picks? That’s insane. Both of these guys are hobbled. Rice wasn’t actually good to start with — it was all usage. Nabers is a great talent but data says 30% decline in production the first year back from an ACL for a WR. Always bet the base rate.

Bryant: I’m avoiding Nabers due to an uncertain return-from-injury timeline, but let me make a case DeVonta Smith. He has a solid floor, but his ceiling might be a little capped. Maybe the Eagles are a lot different with OC Sean Mannion, but I doubt they’ll suddenly play with a ton of tempo, and Smith has never been targeted much in the red zone or end zone. Plus, Makai Lemon could end up as the 1A (or at least 1B) by end of season, Dontayvion Wicks is more of a target threat than Jahan Dotson was last year, and Dallas Goedert will always get around five a game. It’s not exactly that he’s priced badly, but Smith may not provide enough to win leagues.

Funston: I’m not drafting Justin Jefferson (WR6) or Malik Nabers (WR13) at ADP, but to throw out a different name, I’ll go with Nico Collins (WR9). I’m always amazed how much the fantasy community fawns over someone with career highs of 80 receptions and 8 TDs. Now in his sixth season, he’s missed at least two games in each of his previous five campaigns and has missed a total of 20 games across that span. Over the past three seasons, Collins ranks 20th among WRs in receptions and 21st in targets. I get it, Collins looks the part of a supreme alpha. But he shouldn’t be drafted like one.

Which WR outside the top 25 in ADP are you targeting most based on value?

Rome Odunze is typically coming off drafts board later than WR teammate Luther Burden, but should he? (Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)

Ciely: It was Parker Washington, but people are catching up to the reality that he’s the best Jaguars wideout. Josh Downs was a frequent target before Keenan Allen arrived. So, one answer that hasn’t changed is Jalen Coker. Over the past five seasons — probably longer, but that’s where I cut off the research timeframe — for wide receivers with at least 100+ targets and 20% of the target share, only three have failed to hit the top-40 in fantasy: Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy and, well, Elijah Moore, again. Coker is like cracking that item box and seeing the blue shell pop up.

Behrens: Rome Odunze was looking like one of the right answers in fantasy for half a season in 2025, prior to the injury. He was smooth, physical and versatile. When a play got messy, Caleb Williams was generally looking for Rome.

Del Don: Chris Godwin was fantasy’s WR2 in points per game in 2024 before suffering a season-ending injury. He struggled after returning from an ankle dislocation and fibula fracture, but he was the WR24 with strong underlying peripherals to close last season (Weeks 13-17). Mike Evans is gone, and Emeka Egbuka enters the season likely dealing with turf toe. Godwin may not be as explosive as he once was, but he looked healthy while impressing throughout OTAs, and he’s the favorite to play the slot. Godwin is a steal as the WR36.

Evans: Matthew Golden. Purchasing a Golden ticket after pick No. 100 overall is sure to satisfy the sweet tooth. Blessed with Lamborghini wheels, the sophomore WR reportedly will line up opposite Christian Watson in two-WR sets. Given his stellar separation speed, he’s sure to gain breathing room early and often. As long as Jordan Love doesn’t somehow overthrow him a gazillion times like last year, he has a real chance to lead the Packers in targets. And, yes, this dice roller gambled on him reaching 1,000 yards at +400. Spicy.

Salfino: In pure PPR, given how far outside the top 25 he is, Wan’Dale Robinson (WR46). I can pretty much guarantee WR15 in PPR PPG.

Bryant: Give me Rome Odunze at WR29. I’m trying to avoid bad offenses this year, which takes a number of potential value picks off the board. There’s a lot of hype around Burden, while Odunze is post-hype, but Odunze could easily be the No. 1 for the Bears, which is an offense expected to put up points and be productive with Ben Johnson at the helm. DJ Moore is out of town, so Odunze’s team-target percentage is sure to tick up, alongside his red zone targets per game (top-15 among WRs in 2025).

Funston: I’m with Andy and Jess — give me all the Rome Odunze you got. It’s been wonderful how much the Luther Burden hype has helped keep Odunze’s great preseason on the back burner. Not only is Odunze’s foot feeling great, but there’s talk that head coach Ben Johnson is going to open up an aspect that he’s been loathe to in the past — 50/50 balls.

Said Johnson, “Rome’s looking to play fast and he’s looking to be great at the top of his routes. He’s a bigger body and so part of what his superpower is the contested catches, as well … I’m really pleased with what it looks like between Caleb (Williams) and him, where the ball’s being placed and him being able to torque and go up for the football when needed. He brings a different element to the offense than maybe what I’ve been around in the past. And I look forward to sinking into that.” Let’s go!

Who is your favorite value among WRs who switched teams this offseason?

Ciely: Stefon Diggs just finished inside the top-20 despite playing just 65% of the routes in New England for most of the season. Now he’s the clear No. 2 in Washington, filling a massive void. I like Moore’s value and his fit with the Bills, but Diggs going as a fringe WR4 is buying all the upside and none of the risk.

Behrens: My favorite value is probably Diggs (WR47), but I’d give an honorable mention to Moore. That’s just such a friendly, no-risk price on Diggs, who still has plenty of juice. He’s now paired with an ascending, hyper-accurate quarterback, too.

Del Don: Evans will turn 33 soon and is coming off an injury-ruined season, but he’s got a ton of fantasy upside as Kyle Shanahan’s new X receiver. He’s the clear WR1 in a productive 49ers’ offense that vacated 38% of last year’s red-zone targets. Ricky Pearsall is also out for the season, and George Kittle is coming off Achilles surgery. Evans had 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons to open his career and scored 24 touchdowns over 2023-2024 before a broken collarbone/concussion ended his year abruptly in 2025. He was playing through a hamstring injury before that, yet Evans still posted elite separation metrics while playing with an injured/shaky quarterback.

Evans: DJ Moore. Admittedly, his rounded route in his final act last season for Chicago deserves all the rotten cabbage. However, it’s impossible to ignore how much of an upgrade he is over Buffalo’s receiving stiffs from a season ago. Moore should become the apple of Josh Allen’s eye, attracting upwards of 125 targets. Metrically sound and not quite 30 years old, he has solid odds of returning to his 2024 output (98-966-6).

Salfino: Well, I already said Robinson. I’ll tab Jaylen Waddle (WR20) here because the passing tree in Denver is very narrow.

Bryant: Moore will be Buffalo’s No. 1 WR, a role in which Stefon Diggs did quite well for himself. He’s the best target Josh Allen has had since Diggs, and I think the new environment with less competition for targets is just what Moore needed for a bounce-back campaign. In four seasons with Allen, Diggs finished as the WR3, WR10, WR5 and WR13 on a per-game basis. If you get that from your team’s WR3, you’ll win some matchups.

Funston: DJ Moore. He’s my favorite WR target of 2026. Stylistically, he’s just a fantastic fit for Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs finished as a top-10 fantasy WRs in each of his four season playing with Allen, and Moore and Diggs have a lot more in common than both being products of the University of Maryland.

Who is your favorite value among rookie WRs?

Thanks to a strong camp and injuries plaguing the 49ers’ WR room, rookie De’Zhaun Stribling is rising up draft boards. (Michael Zagaris / Getty Images)

Ciely: It’s been KC Concepcion, it should be Concepcion, people saw why it’s Concepcion in preseason Week 1, and well, that’s enough rhyming and saying the name, Concepcion … son. Even though the QB situation looks as bad as we’ve seen in the past decade, Concepcion is showing why I had him in a tier of his own, behind the big three receivers, in the 2026 NFL Draft. Jerry Jeudy is already relegated to battling Denzel Boston for the second-most snaps/work, and Concepcion should compete with Harold Fannin to lead the team in targets. I go back to my 100+ targets example I gave for Coker — if you bump that to 120+, you get a minimum of WR35.

Behrens: I hate to be the guy who screams at you about preseason performances, but, well … just look at this nonsense. De’Zhaun Stribling might just be a star. He looks unstoppable.

Del Don: It was easily Jordyn Tyson until he injured his hamstring yet again, and I’ve been out on Carnell Tate’s ADP (WR30). Makai Lemon is also missing time with injury, while Cleveland’s WRs must deal with possibly the league’s worst QB play. Meanwhile, Stribling was highly impressive during his preseason debut, but his ADP is soaring, and it wouldn’t surprise if DeMarcus Robinson opens the year higher on the 49ers’ depth chart. In other words, give me Ja’Kobi Lane and Cyrus Allen later in drafts.

Evans: Stribling. If you’re a card-carrying member of #TeamHuevos, the Niners rookie is the appropriate later-round target. The buzz surrounding him has reached a deafening height, but his stellar versatility, YAC skills and building camp chemistry with Brock Purdy have turned heads. The former Ole Miss standout’s seven receptions for 62 yards in his preseason debut is only an appetizer of the main course to come. It wouldn’t be remotely surprising if he outplayed Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel this year.

Salfino: I hate rookie WRs. None of them will be on any of my teams. Tyson is out two months or it would be him. It seems that he’s not made to play football though, like 99.9% of humans. I can’t stress enough not to draft any of the rookies. De’Zhaun Stribling is going wind up WR40 at worst. That’s just not a realistic number.

Bryant: I’ve bought Stribling at his cost, but I’ll pivot. Hamstring injuries can be limiting for WRs, but I think Lemon could have a big second half. As I said earlier, I’m avoiding bad offenses, which means Tate, Concepcion and Denzel Boston are all out, though at his price I don’t hate KC (massively talented). But, last season, Jerry Jeudy led Browns receivers in FPPG with 7.1. In a down year for Philly’s offense, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown each averaged over 11, and in 2024, they each averaged over 15. There’s some competition for targets with Smith and Wicks, but Lemon’s a very good route runner with a lot of potential.

Funston: I don’t adhere as aggressively to a philosophy of not rostering rookie receivers as Salfino does, but I’m with him this season. I don’t really love any of the values, especially now that Tyson is dealing with a hammy issue. If forced to choose, I’d say Stribling. I also think Denzel Boston isn’t getting enough love for how good of a camp he’s having, but I get that the Cleveland QB situation is a sobering reality.

Who is the biggest risk/reward WR pick for this season?

Ciely: Outside the obvious “will Alec Pierce play in 2026?” situation, it’s Davante Adams and the “will he continue to post absurd touchdown numbers” question. Don’t forget Adams had three more receiving touchdowns than anyone when he got hurt in Week 14, then had three more touchdowns than anyone still at the end of the year. So, will Adams stay mostly healthy, keep up the touchdown rate and finish as a WR1 again? Or will the declining play continue, touchdown rate regress and/or he misses even more time, and he’s a complete bust?

Behrens: Malik Nabers has overall WR1 within the range of outcomes — unlikely, but possible — and he also might be weeks or months away from returning to his pre-injury form. At his ADP, the risk is very real.

Del Don: Nabers remains risky coming off such serious injuries (full meniscus repair), but he’d otherwise be a top-five pick this year. He put up the third-most fantasy points per game ever by a rookie WR while catching passes from Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito. There’s also concern over a Matt Nagy offense, but Nabers is a generational talent. He’s this year’s biggest risk/reward draft pick.

Evans: Alec Pierce. No one really knows exactly when Pierce will return to action. His slow recovery from March ankle surgery raises all sorts of red flags. It’s a big reason why Keenan Allen recently signed on the dotted line with Indy. In a mostly healthy 2025, Pierce was a top-30 fantasy WR who flashed phenomenal outside-the-numbers skills. Last season with the Ponies, he ranked top-three among WRs in yards per target, aDOT, air yards, deep-ball targets and yards per reception. He could rebound in time for Week 1, or he could miss a significant chunk of the season. Holy variance.

Salfino: I stipulate that Nabers may be an athletic freak that beats the odds. Or he may have yet another setback.

Bryant: Rashee Rice had arthroscopic knee surgery in May on the same knee as his 2024 LCL tear and has been the subject of many off-the-field issues. If he plays the entire season, he has top-five upside, with little competition for targets. I like that scenario a lot. However, the past two years, he’s been limited to eight games or fewer.

Funston: Nabers is the proper call, but for the sake of diversity, I’m going to put the spotlight on Christian Watson. Like Nico Collins (who I discussed above), I think people tend to gravitate towards the best that Watson has to offer without fully pricing in the ever-present worst that Watson has to offer. Watson is going as WR28 in ADP, but he’s never delivered a full-season PPR campaign that landed inside the top 40 receivers. He’s missed 20 games in four seasons, and his career highs in catches and receiving yards are 41 and 620, respectively. He’s a fantasy football box of chocolates.

What are your Justin Jefferson predictions (receptions, receiving yards, TDs) for 2026?

Ciely: 152.6 targets, 101.3 receptions, 1246.5 yards, 7.7 touchdowns, 221.5 points — straight from my customizable projections, which you can play with and change.

Behrens: I am definitely in the camp that believes Jefferson can lead the league in any receiving category as long as his QB can achieve the most basic level of on-field competence. Purely on talent, without considering team context, he’s absolutely one of the three best receivers in the NFL right now (and I don’t think he’s third).

Evans: While late Call of Duty gaming nights are a worry for Kyler Murray, he’s an effective deep-ball passer who should consistently connect with the ultra-talented Jefferson on explosive gains. Provided he plays at least 15 games, Jefferson will finish entrenched inside the position’s top-five. JJ will indeed be D-Y-N-O-M-I-T-E again.

Go deep! Who is your favorite late-round WR flyer (outside the top 60 in ADP)?

Ciely: He’s back to practicing, so Jalen McMillan. It’s not just his talent — somewhat thought of alongside his teammate Rome Odunze coming out of Washington. It’s not just that he led the team with a receiving line of 9-7-114 in Week 17 last year. It’s that it wouldn’t take an injury ahead of him to find top-40 value. That could come with Chris Godwin not bouncing back and ending up in your trade-in pile of games, which you forget about and ends up becoming a decorative coaster instead. McMillan can be the No. 2 for Baker Mayfield, and if Emeka Egbuka’s toe is a season-long issue, there’s even more potential value for McMillan.

Behrens: In pretty much every draft, I’m taking a late flier on one of the rookie camp heroes. I don’t care if it’s Ja’Kobi Lane, Caleb Douglas or Cyrus Allen. It feels like there’s a golden ticket in there somewhere. Lane might be my favorite of the bunch; not a day goes by without another Ja’Kobi highlight hitting my social feed.

Del Don: I’m buying the preseason hype on Pat Bryant, who’s quietly out-targeted Courtland Sutton over their past four full games together. Bryant looks poised to make the leap in Year 2, and beat writers suggest he could overtake Sutton in 2026. Jaylen Waddle is seemingly always visiting the medical tent, so Bryant could emerge as a major fantasy factor this year.

Evans: Bryant. Straight from Sean Payton and every other living, breathing human being who’s attended Broncos training camp, Bryant has been THE star. How do I know? Multiple reporters have texted yours truly directly singing the sophomore receiver’s praises. Jaylen Waddle is the WR1, but look for Bryant to push Courtland Sutton for WR2 targets. Admittedly, his advanced analytics profile paints a picture of mediocrity. Still, listen to the boots on the ground. A 50-650-5 line could be his floor. That’s solid for the current WR119 in average drafts.

Salfino: Dontayvion Wicks by a mile. Looking at their numbers last year, he beat Matthew Golden in all the key efficiency/performance metrics. I don’t think DeVonta Smith has the physical attributes to take on the attention/physicality of a true alpha receiver. Not saying Smith won’t have the most targets, just that it will be a narrower gap than is being forecasted.

Bryant: Compared to many WRs in this range, McMillan’s athletic profile stands out. He’s 6-foot-1, 192 pounds and fast (4.47 40-yard dash) with a 37-inch vertical. He was drafted in the third round and hasn’t had the opportunity, due to injuries, to excel. I’m chasing upside this late in the draft, and if Emeka Egbuka or Chris Godwin go down (or if Godwin experiences age-related decline), McMillan is a well-built receiver on a decent offense; he could be productive on a weekly basis and finally break out.

Funston: McMillan, at WR61, is too low, and I’m keeping an eye on who emerges (or is signed) in Houston now that Jayden Higgins is done for the season (ACL).