MONTREAL — Scotty Bowman doesn’t miss a thing.
Especially with the teams he routinely watches.
The greatest coach in hockey history has especially kept tabs over the years with the organizations he’s had history with.
He drafted Lindy Ruff in Buffalo so of course he’s watching the Sabres. He coached a championship team in Pittsburgh so yes, he enjoys watching the Penguins. His legacy in Detroit is forever, so yes he’s kept on top of the Red Wings. He started his legendary career in St. Louis so he watches the Blues as well.
But of course, there’s a bunch of Stanley Cup banners from the 1970s here in the rafters at the Bell Centre that have his imprints on them, so he’s never stopped watching the Habs.
What makes it fun for him these days is that the Lightning are his local team, per se, given that his winter home is in Sarasota, Fla. He’s been going to games in Tampa for more than 20 years.
And, well, Bowman has always admired Lightning head coach Jon Cooper, as I wrote about in April 2019 after both men shared the fact that each had coached 62-win teams.
So of course Bowman is watching the Tampa-Montreal series. And when we caught up Saturday morning, hockey’s most brilliant mind had some observations to be sure.
Bowman said he had three main questions he asked himself before this series:
“With the goaltending, it’s quite a thing when a young goalie plays against an established type of goalie,’’ Bowman said. “It’s not that easy. I always remember with Patrick Roy, when I was in Detroit, it was very tough for a guy like (Chris) Osgood, when you’re in a tight series which could go 6-7 games, then you’re looking at the guy at the other end who has won so many Stanley Cups and everything. I thought the difference in Detroit was getting Mike Vernon. That was a big advantage for us because he had played against Roy in two Cup finals (’86 and ’89).
“So I was wondering if (Jakub) Dobes could stand up to (Andrei) Vasilevskiy,’’ continued Bowman. “And so far, the team has done a good job; they haven’t left him too exposed, maybe a little more work in Tampa. But I had concerns (before the series) about the goaltending.’’
Which so far, Bowman said, hasn’t played out.
Dobes gave up a soft goal to Brandon Hagel in Game 3, but as Habs head coach Martin St. Louis noted Saturday, he has been so impressed with how Dobes has been able to “move on’’ and park things both within games but also from game to game. That’s a real good sign for a young goalie.
No. 2, Bowman said of his three main questions pre-series, was the loss before the playoffs of top-four defenseman Noah Dobson.
“He was an important player for Montreal this year because he played most of the time with (Mike) Matheson and they were the No. 1 pair. They played against first lines quite often,’’ Bowman said. “Not that (Lane) Hutson didn’t, but it allowed Hutson to stay away from some players. I mean, he’s a special player and he’s learning on the job. But he’s so good and so skilled. But I was concerned when they lost Dobson — that’s a pretty big loss. But that’s been taken care of. They’re getting some hockey out of (Arber) Xhekaj and (Jayden) Struble. That’s helped them a lot.’’
I asked Hutson on Saturday about how proud he was of his blue-line group and how they’ve managed without Dobson so far.
“I don’t think it’s just our D. I mean, our forwards are doing a great job in our own end,’’ said Huston. “Collectively we’ve been really sharp. It’s been fun to defend and be a part of it and help any way I can. But yeah, everyone is defending so hard and trying to make up for Dobber being out.’’
And finally, question No. 3 pre-series for Bowman was the team’s forward depth.
“Montreal was so good in the overtimes in the regular season, I would watch them play a lot, and they were so good in the three-on-three with those three guys (Nick) Suzuki, (Cole) Caufield and Hutson,’’ Bowman said. “And then I looked at their depth scoring and I said, ‘Gee, I don’t know if, I mean they can’t just rely on those guys. Tampa probably won’t let that (Suzuki) line go wild.’ Cooper is a pretty good coach on matching up.
“But the depth scoring won the game last night,’’ continued Bowman, referring to Kirby Dach’s unit. “They got goals from guys that usually don’t score (much) during the year.’’
So there you have it: Bowman had three question marks, and as he said, so far over three games, Montreal has answered all three.
“I felt they would have quite a surge when they got back to Montreal,’’ Bowman said. “I mean, the atmosphere in Montreal … and they dominated, they held that team to 17 shots last night. And I was surprised by that.’’
The series is far from over, no one knows that better than Bowman, who is first all-time among coaches in NHL history in regular-season wins (1,244) and playoff wins (223, .632 win percentage).
And most importantly, first all-time among coaches in NHL history with nine Stanley Cup rings (’73, ’76, ’77, ’78, ’79 with Montreal, ’92 with Pittsburgh, ’97, ’98 and ’02 with Detroit).
“There’s a lot of variables that have gone in the favor of Montreal so far,’’ Bowman said. “The goaltending is still a factor. Vasilevskiy stopped three clean breakaways last night. That’s quite a feat. And then the other team still wins the game. One goal Dobes was kind of … Hagel’s shot, but you know, he’s held up.’’
There’s also this about the goalie matchup, and yes Vasilevskiy’s Cup-winning pedigree speaks for itself. He may win the Vezina Trophy this season, but his playoff numbers the last three years have been shaky, dating back to losing to Toronto in ’23 (.875 save percentage), Florida in ’24 (.897), Florida again last year (.872) and so far .880 in this series with a minus-0.4 goals saves above expected according to MoneyPuck (Dobes is minus-0.8).
“I truly believe the way the team plays in front of you is a big part of how it goes with the goalie,’’ Cooper said Saturday when asked about Vasilevskiy. “Let’s just take last night’s game. Montreal had three breakaways in the game, and he stopped them all. Take the goals they scored, the Kirby Dach goal and the Hutson goal … what’s the percentage of those shots going in? If you’re going to tell me Hutson’s was going in, I’ve frozen it; I have no idea how that puck went into the net.
“Kind of similar with Dach’s, it went off (Ryan) McDonagh maybe,’’ he continued. “Sometimes pucks have eyes. And you just can’t lay that on the goaltender.’’
As Cooper said postgame Friday night, three games, three overtimes, it’s a very close series.
Veteran NHL head coach Peter Laviolette also watches a lot of Lightning games, as his place in Longboat Key is just an hour from Tampa. He felt all along it would be a close series. He gave his analysis of what he’s watched so far in the series:
“The stat that sticks for me is attempted but blocked, and missed shots on net to a certain extent,’’ he said via text message Saturday. “Tampa not double Montreal but close. Puck is leaving their stick but not getting to the net. Sometimes you need to win the races underneath to get position in that zone 1 area.
“Maybe it’s for the grade A chance, but also to offer secondary options with screens, tips and rebounds. Maybe try to find a way to find redirect goals just off the potential blocked shots. Nic Dowd’s goal is a perfect example of that in Vegas. Numbers in this area will also lead to secondary chances, which are usually ultra dangerous.
“But it shouldn’t be looked at that Tampa isn’t getting it done, they just have the reputation from their past that they are supposed to win. Montreal, the up and comer overachieving … but the truth is, it’s two even teams playing their ass off. Physical, fun, hard fought games.
“Underlying numbers would be PP for Montreal is winning the battle. Three things can be heavy handed in winning a series:
– Defense
– Special Teams
– Goaltending
“(The last seems to be fine for both)
“The slight edge on 3 OT games is Montreal defense and special teams.
“Not by much … but better looks.’’
Our Athletic stats whiz Dom Luszczyszyn had Tampa very much favored pre-series based on his model, and he wasn’t alone. But just three games later, things have certainly tightened.
From our man Dom to me on Saturday:
“To say this is not what I expected would be an understatement — a statement Habs fans are likely relishing. This has often looked like an 80-20 series … just not for the Lightning.
“What I expected was significantly more spurts like the overtime in Game 2. That’s the Lightning team that I believed to be head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the East. That team just hasn’t shown up and the Canadiens deserve a ton of credit for stifling them.
“That expectation is on the basis of Tampa Bay’s ability to control play relative to Montreal this season with a 54.7 percent xG rate to Montreal’s 50.5 percent. In this series, it’s actually Montreal controlling play with 53.8 percent of the xG at five-on-five. The Canadiens have held the Lightning to just 1.76 xGA/60, one of the lowest marks in the playoffs and more than one less than Tampa Bay generated during the season.
“That’s shifted the team’s Defensive Rating from plus-seven to plus-nine (with the inverse being true for Tampa Bay’s Offensive Rating). That brings the two teams closer, but it’s still a cautious shift as it’s only been three games. Given how stingy Montreal has looked in those three games, though, that shift doesn’t feel nearly emphatic enough.
“All of that has affected the model’s expectations for the series. While its unrelenting belief in Tampa Bay’s roster still means the Lightning are slightly favored (53 percent) while down 2-1, that’s a far cry from their initial starting position.’’
So, here we go. We’re about to find out even more about a legacy championship team like Tampa and where the Lightning are deep into that decade-plus journey (I’m not ready to count them out, that’s for sure), and certainly learning more about a youthful Habs team that looks every bit the part of a contender already.
It really is becoming a sensational series.
