One of the biggest debates in college football is which power conference is the strongest in the country.
The Big Ten has been the conference of champions lately, unseating the SEC from atop the pecking order with three different programs winning the last three national titles: Michigan in 2023, Ohio State in 2024 and Indiana in 2025. The SEC had previously owned those bragging rights, producing 14 national champions between 2003 and 2022.
Even in a year that saw Penn State go from preseason No. 2 to a 6-6 regular season, the Big Ten was still very top-heavy last season. Indiana’s emergence has added another strong program to the top of the conference. The Hoosiers won the national title, but Ohio State spent most of the year ranked No. 1 and Oregon made it to the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.
This season, it’s those teams at the top again in the preseason odds. Ohio State is the favorite to win the Big Ten, as well as the favorite to win the national title, with Oregon and Indiana not far behind. The Buckeyes are +180 on FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM. Indiana and Oregon are in the next two spots, rotating which order depending on the sportsbook, both with odds just shy of +300.
Every other team in the Big Ten has odds of 10-to-1 or longer. USC, Michigan, Penn State and Washington are in the next tier of contenders. Michigan and Penn State will have different looks with first-year coaches.
Big Ten odds
Austin Mock’s projections mirror the odds at the top of the Big Ten. Ohio State has a 36.3 percent chance of winning the conference while Indiana and Oregon are both above 20 percent. The next highest team is USC at just 5 percent.
Below are Mock’s full numbers for both win totals and Big Ten title chances, compared to the win total odds for every team.
XWINS is the average number of wins a team got through Mock’s simulations. W ODDS is the currently listed win total line for each team on DraftKings. CONF is the chance Mock’s model projects a team to win the conference. CFP is the chance Mock’s model projects a team to make the 12-team Playoff.
Big Ten projections
| Team | x wins | w odds | CFP | conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
9.8 | 9.5 | 70.7% | 36.3% | |
10.0 | 10.5 | 68.5% | 23.5% | |
9.8 | 10.5 | 67.0% | 22.4% | |
8.1 | 8.5 | 29.3% | 5.0% | |
8.7 | 8.5 | 29.3% | 3.8% | |
7.6 | 8.5 | 21.2% | 3.6% | |
7.5 | 7.5 | 16.9% | 2.0% | |
7.5 | 7.5 | 12.2% | 1.3% | |
6.9 | 7.5 | 6.7% | 0.6% | |
6.1 | 6.5 | 4.5% | 0.4% | |
6.0 | 6.5 | 4.2% | 0.3% | |
5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6% | 0.2% | |
5.7 | 6.5 | 2.9% | 0.1% | |
5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7% | 0.1% | |
5.3 | 5.5 | 1.6% | 0.1% | |
4.7 | 3.5 | 1.5% | 0.1% | |
4.6 | 4.5 | 1.5% | 0.1% | |
5.0 | 5.5 | 1.1% | 0.0% |
For more context on his model’s projections, Mock answered a few questions heading into the Big Ten season.
How do you project teams like Penn State in Matt Campbell’s first year and Michigan in Kyle Whittingham’s first year?
Mock: My model projects them pretty similarly. Both shouldn’t see drop offs in Year 1 of their new coaches. Michigan does grade out slightly higher from a power ranking standpoint, but it’s close enough that nothing would surprise me by the end of the year.
The difference between these two teams are their schedules. Michigan plays the 18th-hardest schedule in the country per my model while Penn State’s is ranked 50th. That comes out to about a full win difference, meaning that a 9-3 Michigan will compare to a 10-2 Penn State in terms of strength of record. Accordingly, their win totals are about a win apart.
Unfortunately for Michigan, the schedule is going to make getting to double-digit wins quite difficult. Maybe quarterback Bryce Underwood takes a big step forward and the Wolverines can overperform, but it’s hard for me to see them as a playoff team. And this is where the difference comes with Penn State, as the Nittany Lions have a much better chance of winning 10 games. So while I don’t think these teams are too different — I’d even give Michigan the slight edge head-to-head — I’d say Penn State is more likely to win the conference or make the College Football Playoff.
Your numbers say there is an 82.2 percent chance of Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon winning the Big Ten. Is there any team that can break into that top three?
Mock: From a number’s perspective, it’s USC, and the Trojans have a high ceiling with Jayden Maiava at quarterback and Lincoln Riley calling plays. The schedule is a bit tough, though. The Trojans have to travel across the country to Rutgers and Penn State. They also have a trip to Indiana all while hosting Oregon, Ohio State and Washington. I’m not sure I’m able to buy this team getting to Indianapolis with that schedule, so I’ll go against my numbers and choose Penn State.
Penn State’s three toughest games are at Michigan, home against USC and at Washington. The Nittany Lions somehow avoid Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. It sets up quite well for them to make a run and secure a spot in the Big Ten title game which is why they’re the team I’m willing to back usurp the big three.
Why Oregon is Ralph Russo’s No. 1 team in the AP poll
Ralph D. Russo
What separates the top three teams? How do you compare Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon?
Mock: Ohio State projects as the top team in the country per my model, which should come as no surprise considering the talent on the roster. Having Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin is a great place to start when building a college team. A talent like Smith might separate you from other teams because no one else has a player like him.
Oregon is next with one of the most talented defensive lines in the country, which should take them very far. And that goes without mentioning they have a first round talent at quarterback in Dante Moore.
Indiana is firmly third, mostly because of the quarterback position. Ohio State and Oregon both have first-round talents at the position while Indiana brings in a good player in TCU transfer Josh Hoover. He should be a notch down from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. Now, no one expected Mendoza to win the Heisman heading into last year, so maybe coach Curt Cignetti can work his magic again. But it’s fair to say Indiana has some ground to make up on the offensive side of the ball compared to Ohio State and Oregon.
