We’re nearly halfway through the regular season. That’s a lot of games in the bank, but it also means that wherever you are in the standings is only half the picture. A few good moves can still make a big difference.
Buy
Ketel Marte, 2B, ARI
Is Marte finally showing signs of age? He’s been slowed by injuries over the years, but when he’s on the field the production has been very steady. This season, however, the people who grabbed him early in the hopes of solving a tough second base position have been “rewarded” with a .259 average and .315 OBP — well below his standard. While that isn’t just bad luck, it’s partly bad luck, and the other stuff I’m optimistic he can sort out. For starters, his .269 BABIP is 25 points below his career average and his expected batting average is a clean .300. The raw power is still there. He’s chasing more on the year, but he has righted the ship in the past month. Injuries are always a concern with him, but if he’s active, he’s still an elite hitter.
Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B, CHW
Vargas has been more good than great in June and maybe the breakout is starting to look like a mirage. He’s had one home run since June 2, and he’s hitting .220 in that stretch. By his Statcast expected stats, however, he hasn’t missed a beat. In that same period, his expected average is .315 and his xSLG is .521 against an actual SLG of .305. The breakout is real — he’s swinging much harder and missing less. Maybe there’s a window to get him now while the early success looks like a blip from someone who was only league average last year.
George Kirby, Bryan Woo, SP, SEA
Let’s group these two Seattle aces who have both hit a rough stretch. Woo is the preferred option here, and also the one who will be harder to pry loose after he righted the ship with a great start against the Orioles. Prior to that, he gave up seven in Baltimore and five against Detroit. His 3.94 ERA isn’t what you want from him, but he’s been unlucky with runners on base, only stranding 64.2% of them. That should regress in a good way, and he’ll keep racking up strikeouts.
Kirby won’t bring quite as many K’s but the 4.10 ERA looks similarly unlucky. He put up a 4.21 figure last year, so it may seem like this is just who he is now. Throw in the 21.1% K rate and he looks almost droppable in shallow leagues. He’s not going to suddenly turn into a top-10 pitcher, but he should be better than this. Every ERA estimator gives him a number in the mid-3s. The walk rate is still tidy and the .333 BABIP should come down. The out-of-character 1.33 WHIP has plenty of room to drop, and I’d expect something closer to a 1.15 mark going forward.
Sell
CJ Abrams, SS, WAS
Abrams has improved since last year, just probably not this much. The power has arrived, and he’s on pace for a high-30s home run total, and he could chip in 30 steals. He’s hitting the ball a little harder and a lot higher — his launch angle jumped four degrees to 17.3, though his fly-ball rate has barely budged. My real concern is that his swinging-strike rate is up to 13.6%, and while he has kept his K rate to 20.4% by swinging more, I wonder if he can keep this going. Sometimes players can thrive with that kind of approach with great raw tools, but I think the smart money is on Abrams taking a step back from where he is now, which would fit with his Statcast numbers and his projections.
TJ Rumfield, 1B, COL
Good hitters in Colorado are always exciting for fantasy purposes, and Rumfield has been found money for his managers this year. The thing is, even if we factor in his home park, he’s playing over his head. This year, Colorado players are outperforming their xwOBA by 13 points (team wOBA is .323, xwOBA is .310, league average wOBA is .318). Rumfield, on the other hand, is putting up a .367 wOBA against an xwOBA of .323. It’s hard to maintain the sort of production he’s putting up with a 6.3% barrel rate, a low-end bat speed (69.1 MPH) and average exit velocity (84.6 MPH).
Spencer Arrighetti, SP, HOU
Arrighetti is a really interesting pitcher — he throws six pitches and the one he uses the most is his curveball — who is currently getting better results than he can likely maintain. I’m open to the idea that something in his unusual approach keeps hitters off balance, but that’s putting a lot of faith in ambiguity. His 23.2% K rate feels like the peak of what he’s capable of with a 10% swinging-strike rate, and the .256 BABIP and 79.4% strand rate seem unlikely to last. He’s a hold if you can’t sell this version of him, but either way, pencil in an ERA above 4.00 and a WHIP above 1.30 going forward.
Hold
Noelvi Marte, OF, CIN
I’m skeptical that the long-awaited breakout is finally here, but this hot streak is nice and you might as well see where it goes. In the first part of the year, Marte was hitting everything into the ground. Before his demotion to Triple A, 84% of his batted balls were grounders, and another 5% were pop-ups. It was not a pretty picture. Since his return on June 3, the GB rate is a high-but-workable 53%, and he’s making the most of his hits in the air with a 23% HR/FB rate. That won’t continue, but he has been legitimately good this month. As a speedster with good bat speed and some serious raw power, you can dream on the tools.
Sam Antonacci, OF, CHW
Antonacci has been a nifty find for those who snapped him up. The thing is, this is probably around his peak performance, barring some power growth. He hits for a ton of contact, and he has managed to take the .340 BABIP he had in the minor leagues to the majors. That’s going to be hard to maintain with below-average raw power. If you can get full value for what he’s doing now, you can cash him in, but otherwise you might as well enjoy the ride. Even if the average comes down some, he’ll remain a good source of average and steals.
Freddy Peralta, SP, NYM
Peralta was supposed to be the ace the Mets needed to complete their roster, and things have not gone according to plan for the player or the team. After a meltdown against the Phillies, his ERA is 4.83, and some of the underlying numbers have gone in the wrong direction as well. His K rate has plummeted to 22.1% and his swinging-strike rate has continued a four-year slide down to 11.4%. So why hold? Because he’s better than this. The slider was starting to look better before the disaster in Philly, and he has shown flashes of the better version of himself at points. Maybe I’m grasping at straws just to get him up to a hold, but with his pedigree it’s too early to give up on him now.
