The NASCAR Cup Series Chase started off with some drama with Christopher Bell winning in Darlington. That made the championship race much tighter and sets the stage for more drama to come.
Denny Hamlin’s points lead ahead of Bell is now just 12 as the series heads to World Wide Technology Raceway in Madison, Ill., just outside of St. Louis for the Enjoy Illinois 300.
Hamlin is still the betting favorite to win the championship (+175), but this is a solid drop from Hamlin being favored against the field at the start of the Chase. In this weekend’s race, Bell is the favorite to win, which would make things even tighter at the top.
To break it all down, The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi went through the biggest storylines in NASCAR and made predictions for this weekend’s race.
Enjoy Illinois 300 Q&A
As one of the newer tracks on the NASCAR calendar (2022 was the first edition of this race), how do you rate it compared to others on the schedule?
Jeff: This one is a bit of an oddity. The first time NASCAR raced at World Wide Technology Raceway (more commonly known as Gateway) was an O’Reilly Series race in 1997. It became an annual visit for NASCAR’s lower-tier series races for years and predates even tracks like Kansas Speedway or Chicagoland Speedway. But Cup never arrived until recently and, by the time it did, the facility was certainly showing its age. The promoters there have done an outstanding job of maximizing the space they have and making it one of the most fan-friendly race weekends (they have an entire music festival running alongside the races with Busta Rhymes headlining on Saturday!), but it’s an older track and the racing hasn’t been particularly memorable.
Jordan: The addition of Gateway has been a welcome one, even if the racing hasn’t always been sensational. Being in the St. Louis market has been a boon on multiple fronts, including having fans routinely pack into the track. It also gives the Cup schedule another unique venue, something fairly different from anywhere else they race at. So by these measures, it’s hard not to like Gateway and all it provides.
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Jeff Gluck
What did Christopher Bell’s win do to change your view of the Cup chase? Is it still Denny Hamlin’s to lose or is it more wide open?
Jeff: We knew Bell would be a factor, so this isn’t a surprise to see him fighting for the title. He could very well win it. But the biggest impact from Darlington was Hamlin’s “mulligan” finish of 18th. Yes, he still has the points lead, but seeing his advantage sliced in half right away instead of growing at one of his best tracks has to be a bit unsettling. That said, this is a marathon. Going back to a 10-week Chase is exactly the type of thing that should benefit Hamlin. It’s just now he has a lot more competition and his margin for error is slimmer.
Jordan: While Bell winning was in no way a surprise, what it did was add further credence to the fact that he is every bit a realistic title contender even if he doesn’t have as many wins as Hamlin or Tyler Reddick. Between Bell’s talent and ability to win at any of the remaining nine races, he certainly demands to be someone we take very seriously. He is quite capable of beating Hamlin straight up.
How many drivers are realistically in contention for the Cup?
Jeff: Hamlin, Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Ty Gibbs and Tyler Reddick would be my six. If Joey Logano can capitalize at Gateway, he’s still in it. Otherwise it’s already down to six, in my opinion.
Jordan: The only driver not mentioned above who deserves inclusion is Kyle Larson, though he would admit his odds are long. Anyone else should not be considered a realistic contender.
Who do you think wins this weekend?
Jeff: The aforementioned Logano has a massive opportunity. In some ways, this weekend IS his Chase: Take advantage of Penske’s flatter, shorter track strength and have a huge points day like Bell did last week — or shift the focus to just seeking wins for the rest of the season and understanding the championship is not realistic with Ford’s speed compared to the Toyotas. Logano has gone first-third-fifth-fifth at this track for a bonkers average finish of 3.5. I think he scares the field by announcing his presence as a contender they can’t quite shake with a victory on Sunday.
Jordan: This is going to be a showdown of Team Penske versus Joe Gibbs Racing. Penske’s record on this style of track speaks volumes, but JGR has performed well at Gateway — though they don’t have the number of wins like Penske does. Forced to pick, let’s go with Blaney.
Who is most in need of a good result?
Jeff: I already mentioned Logano, so let’s go with Ryan Blaney. Like his Penske teammate Logano, Blaney has to take the opportunity to score major points while he has it. There’s a scary three-race stretch of 1.5-mile tracks where Toyotas should dominate, and Blaney has to keep it close enough then to be able to capitalize at tracks like Phoenix and Martinsville. He can’t afford to let the Toyota drivers gain more distance on him at a place like Gateway, so it’s a crucial weekend for Penske in general.
Jordan: This is a pivotal race for Team Penske, a big opportunity for Blaney and Logano to score a massive amount of points. And if either is to win Penske’s fourth championship in five years, it is essential they capitalize at a track where they should have the advantage.
