Another club season is over, the trophies have been handed out, and the World Cup begins today.
The race for football’s most coveted prize remains open, shaped but not yet settled. And talking of prizes, the Ballon d’Or will surely be decided over the next six weeks, with the 2025-26 winner crowned in October.
Voted on by journalists from 100 nations, the Ballon d’Or weighs individual brilliance against team success — and it is usually the biggest matches that decide it. In World Cup years this century, the prize has gone to a player who reached the competition’s final in 2002, 2006 and 2018.
Can Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe inspire their countries to the ultimate prize? Is Lamine Yamal, on his World Cup debut, going to shape this tournament the way he shaped the 2024 European Championship? Will Erling Haaland announce himself on a stage he has never graced before?
1. Harry Kane, 32 — Bayern Munich, England
Why he’s here: Harry Kane has won the Bundesliga Golden Boot for the third time, becoming the first player to claim the award in each of his first three seasons in Germany. He ended Bayern’s 2025-26 campaign in stunning form, with back-to-back hat-tricks. He scored a goal every 66 minutes, notched five hat-tricks, and finished with 61 goals across all competitions, the most prolific season of his career, capped by a second European Golden Shoe. Vincent Kompany’s Bayern completed the domestic double, winning the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal, but the prize both men crave most eluded them again, as Paris Saint-Germain edged them out in a breathless Champions League semi-final, 6-5 on aggregate.
What’s next: In North America, Kane will captain England at his third World Cup, equalling Billy Wright’s record. England are in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama, and open on June 17 against Croatia, the side who knocked them out in the 2018 semi-finals. England were the first UEFA nation to seal their World Cup place, sweeping through qualifying under Thomas Tuchel with eight wins from eight, 22 goals scored and none conceded. Kane got the winner in the 1-0 friendly win against New Zealand at the weekend, having arrived in the United States central to everything England want to achieve there.
2. Lamine Yamal, 18 — Barcelona, Spain
Why he’s here: A persistent groin problem and a spring muscle tear cost Lamine Yamal long stretches of the 2025-26 season. When fit, he was a constant menace in the final third, drawing more and more defensive attention and still threading passes and finding team-mates with ease. In La Liga, he scored 16 goals, and his 11 assists made him the division’s top provider and the chief architect of Barcelona’s title. Across all competitions, he finished with 24 goals and 17 assists, his most prolific season in front of goal. Against Villarreal in February, he scored his first professional hat-trick, becoming the youngest player this century to score one in La Liga.
What’s next: He makes his World Cup debut under Luis de la Fuente, who handed him his Spain bow and led them to Euro 2024 glory — the tournament where Yamal announced himself on the international stage by finishing top for assists and big chances created. Spain begin Group H play unbeaten in competitive games since March 2023. They need Yamal fit and firing if that run is to mean anything in North America. He has six goals and 11 assists in 25 international appearances since debuting at 16. He turns 19 during the tournament.
Lamine Yamal is returning to fitness but could light up the 2026 World Cup (Julio Cesar Aguilar/AFP via Getty Images)
3. Michael Olise, 24 — Bayern Munich, France
Why he’s here: Michael Olise was named the 2025-26 Bundesliga Player of the Season, and the numbers justify it. He scored 15 goals and topped the league’s assists chart for a second year running, with 19, becoming the first player since Jadon Sancho in 2019-20 to reach at least 15 goals and 15 assists in a single Bundesliga campaign. In the Champions League, he contributed six assists, among the most in the competition, and scored in all three knockout ties: two against Atalanta in the round of 16, a stoppage-time strike to seal the quarter-final win over Real Madrid, and another in the semi-final defeat to PSG.
What’s next: He has cemented his place in the France attack and arrives in the form of his life. Olise can play as an inverted winger or drift inside as a No 10. That gives coach Didier Deschamps tactical flexibility, and makes him a threat, particularly against low blocks. A deep run with France over the coming six weeks could propel him out of his team-mates’ shadows and into the Ballon d’Or conversation.
4. Declan Rice, 27 — Arsenal, England
Why he’s here: Declan Rice was Arsenal’s most important player in their title-winning season, the heartbeat of their first title-winning side in 22 years. He created a team-high 63 chances, and only Bukayo Saka (7.2) registered a higher expected-assists figure, at 7.0. His 3.3 xA from corners and indirect free kicks led the entire Premier League, making Rice the division’s leading set-piece creator. He also led the squad for possession regains and defensive contributions per 90. When Arsenal lost away to title rivals Manchester City in April, Rice was the one telling team-mates “it’s not done” at the final whistle. It is exactly that quality England will need from him this summer.
What’s next: Rice arrives at his third major tournament as a Premier League champion for the first time. Tuchel also has a genuine selection question for the role beside him: Elliot Anderson’s standout season at Nottingham Forest and Kobbie Mainoo’s progressive, press-resistant profile offer qualities that complement Rice’s range and authority from deep. Anderson is the likelier partner, but the competition itself signals something new, and could bring the best out of Rice on the biggest stage.
5. Ousmane Dembele, 29 — Paris Saint-Germain, France
Why he’s here: Ousmane Dembele is the holder of the Ballon d’Or, having edged out Lamine Yamal and Vitinha for the prize in 2025 after PSG’s treble-winning season. Injury and illness have disrupted his 2025-26 campaign, costing him 19 games between club and country, yet he still finished as PSG’s leading scorer with 20 goals across all competitions, plus 11 assists. He also kept deciding the defining ties: scoring twice against Liverpool in the Champions League quarter-final, three times against Bayern in the semi-final, and then a 65th-minute penalty in the final against Arsenal as the French side retained their European title.
What’s next: France are in Group I with Norway, Senegal and Iraq — one they will fancy themselves to win. Dembele helped lift the World Cup in 2018 and, at 29, is now one of the squad’s senior players, expected to set the tone in the big moments. France have reached the final in four of the past seven World Cups; if they go deep again, Dembele’s output in the knockout rounds could be decisive. For his country, he operates in the half-spaces, receiving between the lines and drawing defenders with his movement before driving at the back line.
6. Kylian Mbappe, 27 — Real Madrid, France
Why he’s here: Kylian Mbappe won the Pichichi with 25 goals, finishing as La Liga’s top scorer for the second successive season, even as Real Madrid’s season unravelled around him. In the Champions League, he was even more devastating, with 15 goals in 11 appearances; 13 of them came in just seven league-phase games, a new competition record for that stage. In all competitions, he scored 42, yet the season ended trophyless, a collective collapse deepened by off-field unrest. The Mbappe goals were there, but Madrid could not build much around them.
What’s next: He will lead France at his third World Cup, which will also be Deschamps’ final tournament in charge. Mbappe enters the tournament on 56 international goals, one behind Olivier Giroud’s all-time France record, and four short of Miroslav Klose’s World Cup scoring record of 16. He has already scored in two World Cup finals, including a hat-trick in the previous one four years ago. Several records are within reach, but Mbappe will want collective success to go with them.
Mbappe needs five goals this summer to become the World Cup’s record scorer (Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images)
7. Vinicius Junior, 25 — Real Madrid, Brazil
Why he’s here: A trophyless season counts as a poor one by Real Madrid’s standards, and 2025-26 was exactly that. A season that began with a club legend in charge and a sense of optimism ended with a caretaker manager and unrest. Vinicius Junior was the one constant amid the turbulence, scoring 16 goals in La Liga and five more in the Champions League, while also adding five assists. No Madrid player created more chances than his team-high 70, and none completed more dribbles. A late scare came when he limped off against Sevilla on May 17 but he eased doubts quickly by scoring inside the first minute of Brazil’s recent friendly with Panama.
What’s next: The more compelling story sits with the national side. Club-football managerial legend Carlo Ancelotti takes charge of his first World Cup campaign, doing so as Brazil’s first permanent foreign coach, having inherited a troubled campaign that had ended in a fifth-place CONMEBOL finish. Brazil are in Group C with Morocco, Haiti and Scotland, opening against the former at MetLife Stadium on Saturday. Chasing a first title since 2002, with Neymar back in the squad at 34, they will build around Vinicius Jr as the centrepiece of Ancelotti’s project. He has consistently produced his best football under the Italian at Madrid. The hope, for Brazil, is that he does so again.
8. Erling Haaland, 25 — Manchester City, Norway
Why he’s here: Erling Haaland won his third Premier League Golden Boot in just his fourth season in England, one shy of the record shared by Thierry Henry and Mohamed Salah. The 2025-26 campaign was dramatic, collectively and individually. Manchester City chased eventual title winners Arsenal for much of the season and won both domestic cups, beating Arsenal in the Carabao Cup edition and then Chelsea to lift the FA Cup. A blistering start gave way to a barren run of eight games without an open-play goal. In December, he became the fastest player in history to 100 Premier League goals, eclipsing Alan Shearer’s record by 13 games, and finished the season with 38 goals and nine assists.
What’s next: This time, the story is international. Norway are in the World Cup for the first time in 28 years, and for Haaland it is a first taste of the global stage. Their qualifying campaign was extraordinary: eight wins from eight, 37 goals, and 16 from Haaland alone, one in every game, matching Poland striker Robert Lewandowski’s record for a single European qualifying campaign. With 55 goals in 49 international appearances, he arrives in North America ready to spearhead Norway’s charge. They might not go all the way, but the new 48-nation format gives them a strong chance of getting out of a group containing France, Senegal and Iraq. Haaland’s Ballon d’Or case will duly grow stronger if they go deeper into the knockouts.
9. Luis Diaz, 29 — Bayern Munich, Colombia
Why he’s here: A flying first season followed last summer’s move from Liverpool. Luis Diaz scored 15 goals and registered 14 assists in the Bundesliga, part of a devastating forward line with Kane and Olise. Together, he and Olise became the first Bayern players since 2004-05 to each surpass 13 goals and 13 assists in a single Bundesliga season. He was an ever-present, logging most minutes for Bayern in the league, more than 4,000 minutes across all competitions, scoring on his competitive debut in the German Supercup and hitting his first career hat-trick in a 5-1 demolition of Hoffenheim.
What’s next: Colombia are in Group K with Portugal, Uzbekistan and DR Congo, having qualified third in CONMEBOL on 28 points from 18 games. Diaz is their top scorer and undisputed leader, coming into the tournament in top form after a goal and an assist in last week’s warm-up win against Costa Rica. Colombia and Diaz have the profile of a dark-horse story at this World Cup. A deep run, with big knockout nights eliminating heavyweights, could be his route to the Ballon d’Or podium.
