Inside: Rams-49ers prep, plus your 2026 predictions, the potential of Jahmyr Gibbs and what we learned from the Seahawks’ victory. Let’s start in Seattle.
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Seahawks-Patriots: Long season ahead?
It wasn’t pretty. Sam Darnold limped off, never to return. A.J. Brown did too, with what’s reportedly a high ankle sprain. Both could be out several weeks.
And both were missed last night.
Seattle backup Drew Lock was serviceable, completing 16 of 22 passes for 187 yards, one touchdown and no turnovers. But Seattle’s offense failed to sustain drives, converting just two of 11 third downs, and didn’t score until the end of the third quarter. Drake Maye’s unit was worse, averaging just 4.1 yards per play. (For context, last year, the Browns averaged a league-low 4.3.)
Underwhelming as it was, Seattle’s 13-10 win at home taught us plenty about the upcoming season:
- You still don’t want to face Seattle’s defense. Any worried questions about the shuffled secondary were answered with a resounding, “No.” Despite several offseason departures, the absence of nickelback Nick Emmanwori and a practice-squad safety in the lineup, the Seahawks intercepted Maye more times last night (three) than in the Super Bowl (two)?! Impressive.
- The Patriots are fishy. New England couldn’t run the ball, with starter Rhamondre Stevenson averaging 2.8 yards per carry. And with Brown leaving early, Mack Hollins was again the team’s leading receiver, and Romeo Doubs dropped a wide-open pass the play before Maye’s second interception. So far, the Patriots have failed to prove last year’s AFC title wasn’t a schedule-induced fluke. As Chad Graff writes, it’s hard to know what the most concerning part is.
Meanwhile, the 1-0 Seahawks wait for clarity on Darnold. Lock’s performance, plus winnable upcoming games against the Cardinals and Commanders, suggest the defending champs’ starting QB doesn’t need to rush back. October 4 against the Chargers could be a good target.
Unlike last year, the Patriots get little reprieve in the schedule, with their next three games against playoff teams: the Steelers, Jaguars and Bills. As for tonight’s matchup …
McVay-Shanahan chess match
I recently heard someone say Kyle Shanahan “has Sean McVay’s number,” as if the 49ers coach just knows how to beat the Rams. That’s not totally true, but there’s some logic behind it.
Shanahan and McVay, the league’s two best play callers, have been on opposing sidelines 19 times since 2017. Shanahan leads the series 11-8. (Though he’s no Nick Sirianni, whose Eagles are 4-0 against McVay’s Rams.) He’s arguably even better against the Rams than he is against the rest of the league, albeit slightly:
Tonight, the Rams present one of the toughest tests of his career. The Super Bowl favorites are also 3.5-point favorites in this division rivalry, which kicks off in Melbourne, Australia, at 8:35 p.m. ET.
Given how narrow the margins are, these teams’ radically different travel plans matter. McVay’s team arrived as late as possible, reducing the number of hours spent in a different time zone. Shanahan’s has been there for a week already:
“It’s taken me a while to get adjusted here,” Shanahan said Wednesday. “I’ve been waking up at one in the morning — wide awake — every day until today. And I was extremely tired before this morning, which I feel is (when I) finally adjusted, which I think is five days.”
George Kittle and Nick Bosa are expected to play tonight. Aaron Donald will not. For what it’s worth, the 49ers likely want this one more.
A pivotal year for Buffalo
Yesterday’s reader survey hinted at how binary every year is for Josh Allen. Either win the first Super Bowl in Bills history or break hearts.
That’s always the case when a quarterback is of that caliber. Duh. But your survey responses make for the first time I’ve seen the same team picked to win the AFC and be the most disappointing.
Is first-year head coach Joe Brady the answer? Can he have an impact like Jon Gruden did, when the offensive-minded coach led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl in his first season?
Brady’s Week 1 debut against the Texans might foreshadow what’s to come. Allen was sacked eight times in Buffalo’s most recent loss to Houston (23-19), one of only two teams he has a losing record against. (The other is Sirianni’s Eagles, again; they’re 3-0 against the Bills.)
Also, your responses mean we have college teammates lining up for both Rookie of the Year awards: Notre Dame on offense and Ohio State on defense.
For more season predictions, “The Athletic Football Show” shared theirs here. Let’s spotlight one.
🎙️ TAFS: Big numbers available for Lions stars
Last season, Jahmyr Gibbs didn’t receive a single first-place vote for Offensive Player of the Year. Fair enough. But the 24-year-old running back is the early favorite this season. Dave Helman explains why Gibbs has a shot:
💬 “He’s seventh in rushing since entering the league. He’s third in yards per carry. He’s third in rushing touchdowns. And that was all while sharing a backfield with another qualified back (David Montgomery, now in Houston).
“If he’s relatively healthy, I expect his numbers to be Bijan-adjacent and I think the Lions will have a better record than the Falcons. The dirty truth is you can’t win an award like this going 7-10.”
Robert Mays nominated Detroit receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (25-1 odds) as another OPOY option. It helps that this team has the league’s easiest schedule.
The full episode is filled with 2026 predictions.
Extra Points
🎯 Rams’ fatal flaw? Special teams troubles have plagued the Rams and Packers for years. Our Mike Sando actually gave a presentation (!) to McVay and Matt Lafleur on the problem. It’s a fascinating look at winning in the margins of the NFL.
🎤 DK Metcalf exclusive. In case you missed it, the Steelers star was an open book for Jonathan Jones’ story. They cover the three A’s: anger management, Antarctica and Aaron Rodgers. It’s a rare look into how Metcalf thinks.
🧠 Kyler Murray’s mind. The Vikings’ one-year rental quarterback kept it real in his conversation with Alec Lewis. Forget the video-games narrative; Murray is more competitive than most realize.
▶️ Most-clicked: One bold prediction for all 32 teams. Maye’s MVP bid is off to a rough start.
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