In Mike Babcock’s most recent full season as head coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs, the team had a .924 five-on-five save percentage (No. 7 in the NHL), 3.03 goals per 60 at five-on-five (No. 2) and a goal share at five-on-five of 55 percent (No. 7). The power play scored 7.73 goals per 60 (No. 9) and the penalty kill surrendered exactly seven goals against per 60 (No. 15). The Maple Leafs won 46 games, finished with 100 points for the second year in a row and looked like a team that could contend for the next several seasons.
The 2018-19 season famously ended in disappointment for the Maple Leafs, but there are some important clues about the coming season in Edmonton in those numbers above. Babcock is known to be a suppression coach who prefers responsible players and attention to detail. He uses playing time as motivation and drives fans to distraction with his loyalty to underperforming veterans. He likes a set roster and can be resistant to change.
What does he need in order to win? Here are three keys to victory on a Babcock team.
A fast start
The last time he coached a full season in the NHL, Babcock’s club was locked in early and enjoyed an exceptional start. That will be important this fall, but fans shouldn’t expect the kind of start enjoyed by the 2018-19 Maple Leafs, whose 15 wins in the first 21 games were the most since 1934-35. The underlying numbers weren’t overwhelming, but the goaltending held and the shooters delivered through mid-November.
A fast start like the 2018-19 Toronto team will give Babcock time to figure out what he has on the Edmonton roster. The shortened preseason schedule and early start to the season may work against a new coach, even when taking over a famous roster. Many of the decisions made before the regular season may need a fix in the early days of the campaign. A strong start would make October and November easier from a coaching perspective, even if the team is running with some good luck.
Are you sure that’s a good idea?
Associate coach D.J. Smith will no doubt be tasked with the job of questioning Babcock’s wayward decisions. Even the best (or especially the best) NHL coaches have massive stubborn streaks, and that may factor in during this season.
Babcock has a history of “set and forget” in terms of lines and pairings. Fans may think that’s a bonus after a 25-year romp through the blender from Oilers coaches who shuffled lines (notably Craig MacTavish, Jay Woodcroft and Kris Knoblauch). However, it can be counterproductive. The 2018-19 Maple Leafs played Patrick Marleau heavily (1,143 minutes) at five-on-five with very little production. His 1.16 points per 60 that season was well below replacement level, but Babcock ran him as a regular throughout the season. Natural Stat Trick tracked him playing 433 minutes with Auston Matthews while scoring just 1.11 points per 60 with one of the truly gifted players in the game. That’s a drag on production.
The Oilers have some famous veterans entering their mid-30s, and their performance level could warrant a trip down the depth chart. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are still productive when playing on skill lines, but Nugent-Hopkins has fallen off when playing at centre, and Hyman lost significant time to injury one year ago.
Smith may be key to Babcock’s coaching success in Edmonton. Oilers general manager Stan Bowman could also help with an in-season tweak.
Goaltending
Quality goaltending follows Babcock around. Credit often goes to the coach, but the goalies have been splendid throughout his NHL coaching career. His first NHL team (2002-03 Anaheim Mighty Ducks) went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final with Jean-Sebastien Giguere playing brilliantly. His Stanley Cup season with the Detroit Red Wings (2007-08) featured Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek. In Toronto, Babcock had most of his success with veteran Frederik Andersen, who came to Edmonton via free agency this summer.
Here’s a look at a six-year segment of Maple Leafs results. I was looking for a spike that could be attributed to Babcock in these numbers.
| Year | Save Pct | XGA-60 | Goal Pct | XGoal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2014-15 | 0.918 | 2.59 | 44 | 45 |
2015-16 | 0.919 | 2.27 | 43 | 50 |
2016-17 | 0.923 | 2.41 | 51 | 51 |
2017-18 | 0.929 | 2.58 | 54 | 50 |
2018-19 | 0.924 | 2.57 | 51 | 51 |
2019-20 | 0.912 | 2.43 | 50 | 51 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
In Babcock’s first season with the Maple Leafs, the team improved in expected GA-60, but the actual results lagged until 2016-17. After that, Babcock’s teams earned all of their success, save a bump in luck for the 2017-18 campaign when the actual goal percentage reached 54 percent for no obvious reason. We have to assume luck and good goaltending by Andersen. That lucky year (2017-18) may have contributed to Babcock’s demise with the team.
In his 2018-19 playoff report card article, giving letter grades to all involved, James Mirtle at The Athletic gave Babcock a C-, writing, “I do not think Babcock had a very good series, especially in Game 6 and Game 7 when some adjustments were badly needed with his team sagging. Babcock and his assistants have a lot to answer for in Thursday’s exit meetings, especially when it comes to playing completely ineffective players like Marleau and (Connor) Brown in big minutes all series.”
Bottom line
Babcock’s first training camp in Edmonton will see close scrutiny from the entire hockey world. One of the most heralded coaches of this century arrives to a team that has underachieved despite the searing talent and enormous desire to win.
The three keys to any success Babcock will enjoy are tied directly to his Toronto teams. The Oilers need a fast start to ease the pressure cooker everyone in the organization has been in since the draft in 2015 (some hyperbole there, but not much). The Oilers need goaltending that brings consistent excellence and rises to the challenge of the biggest games. The team has enjoyed that kind of netminding, but only in small amounts during the Connor McDavid era.
Finally, Babcock himself needs to pay heed when a trusted colleague (likely Smith) calls him on his stubborn adherence to the original plan. It cost Babcock in Toronto, where Marleau was unable to deliver but remained in a feature role because of Babcock. The same scenario could occur in Edmonton. Management and coaching support need to reach Babcock in those pivotal moments.
Perhaps a checkdown from a veteran to a young player will be a key player move that leads to winning in Edmonton. Babcock needs that kind of support, plus goaltending, a fast start and some of that luck he was running in 2017-18.
