One notable thing to watch at today’s drawing centers on the 10th pick. If Milwaukee’s name isn’t called in picks 10 or 11*, it means the Bucks moved up at least three spots into the New Orleans position and likely picks eighth or ninth … and that Atlanta moved up into the top four.
(*Yes, there is a small chance it could be 12th, and a microscopic chance it could be called 13th or even 14th. But with a better than three in four chance that none of the bottom four teams move up, this drama most likely centers on Milwaukee being called 10th.)
Additionally, if Milwaukee’s name isn’t called in picks 8, 9, 10 or 11, it means both Milwaukee and Atlanta moved up and that Atlanta is guaranteed to be in the top three by virtue of having the better of the two picks that moved up.
The other oddity is that if Milwaukee’s name is called 10th or 11th, it won’t be immediately clear whether the Bucks ended up there via their own pick (meaning no teams moved up) or via one from New Orleans (meaning three teams moved up). That won’t be certain until the next name is called; if it’s Memphis or Sacramento, it means that Dallas and Chicago moved up, and the Bucks’ own pick might have moved up … or it might have been the New Orleans pick.
Overall, Atlanta has a 40 percent chance of landing in the top four, a 30 percent chance of picking eighth, a 20 percent chance of picking seventh and a 9 percent chance of picking ninth, as well as minuscule odds of pushing down to 10 or 11.
Milwaukee has a 10 percent chance of the modest move-up to picks 8 or 9 and a 3 percent chance of picking in the top four. But in 86 percent of the scenarios, the Bucks end up picking 10th or 11th.
