Forty points: the long-established safety benchmark. It is the points tally at which top-flight status for the following year is considered secure.
But this season that assumption stands on much shakier ground.
It feels increasingly likely that either Tottenham or West Ham will be condemned to that final relegation spot, joining Burnley and Wolves in the Championship next season.
With momentum behind them, these two could smash this 40-point dotted-line ceiling over the coming month. Already, they are operating at an unusually strong pace for sides in a relegation battle.
For West Ham, this high bar for survival brings back familiar, painful memories. They were the last exception to the 40-point rule, getting relegated with 42 in 2002-03.
Neither West Ham nor Spurs can afford to complain or curse their luck, though. The 40-point safety mark is often referred to as “magic”, but there is nothing mystical about the cold, brutal reality they both face.
This total has always been an illusory, arbitrary concept; one that may prove unreliable yet again as a captivating relegation battle comes to a close.
