Nationals get: LHP Connelly Early
Red Sox get: INF Curtis Mead
Chad Jennings
Nationals: BRed Sox: A-
A little more than a week before the trade deadline, we have our first thread-the-needle swap between two third-place teams.
The Washington Nationals, desperate for pitching help, have acquired 24-year-old starter Connelly Early from the Boston Red Sox, who are addressing their long-standing need for a right-handed bat by acquiring 25-year-old third baseman Curtis Mead.
It’s not exactly prospect-for-prospect, but it’s close. Early has five more years of team control, Mead has four more years, and each team is betting on upside well beyond these next two months. Trade grades are rarely straightforward, and this one is a little more complicated because the players lack lengthy track records. The judgment depends on how much you believe in the arrival of Mead’s bat.
There’s an argument for giving the Nationals the better grade because even if Early doesn’t pan out, getting him at all assumes they’ve done a wonderful job selling high on Mead, who was previously designated for assignment, acquired in a much smaller trade in March, and has previously failed to hit for the Rays or White Sox. But he was excellent for four months with the Nats, and the team swapped him for five-plus years of Early, who gives the Nationals much-needed stability at the back of their rotation. He’s probably the safer bet, even if he’s no more than a No. 4 starter.
Giving the Red Sox an A- assumes Mead has legitimately unlocked his long-held potential. Considered a top 100 prospect during his time with the Rays, Mead’s Baseball Savant page now has a lot more red than Early’s, and that kind of right-handed bat — which the Red Sox desperately needed — could be in limited supply this trade deadline. He’s not a good defender, but he can passably play several positions, and his bat could be enough to DH, especially against lefties.
Early has shown flashes of No. 2-3 starter stuff, but his underlying metrics look more like a 4-5. That’s still a good get for the Nats, but Mead’s a versatile, high-upside big swing for the Red Sox, who are betting his breakout season is more than a flash in the pan.
Nationals writer Spencer Nusbaum also gave his thoughts on the deal.
